UT-3

Kent Udell (Dem)
Celeste Maloy (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,470 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,470 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+21.6

5th–95th interval

R+35.5 to R+7.6

Estimated margin

R+21.6

5th–95th interval

R+35.5 to R+7.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+18.1 current average: R+18.1

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Lighthouse Research	Sep 2–Sep 15, 2026	508 rv	Celeste Maloy 44.5% Kent Udell 26.4% Other 2.8%	R+18.1	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction UT-3 Oct 1, 2026

Lone new UT-3 poll leaves our forecast for Maloy essentially unchanged

A Lighthouse Research survey puts Celeste Maloy 18 points ahead, a bit closer than our model expected, nudging our projected margin by less than a point.

A new Lighthouse Research survey of 508 registered voters in Utah's 3rd District, fielded September 2-15, finds Republican Celeste Maloy at 44.5% and Democrat Kent Udell at 26.4%, with 2.8% choosing another option. That is an 18.1-point gap. A large share of the sample did not pick any of the...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5