WA-5
- Carmela Conroy (Dem)
- Michael Baumgartner (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans90%
Republicans are favored, winning 89,593 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans90%
Republicans are favored, winning 89,593 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+10.7
5th–95th interval
R+24.6 to D+3.2
Estimated margin
R+10.7
5th–95th interval
R+24.6 to D+3.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner (R) vs Nate Powell (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research ind sponsor | May 18–May 25, 2026 | 578 lv | Ind 53.0% Michael Baumgartner 47.0% | — | — | Source |
| Carmela Conroy (D) vs Michael Baumgartner (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research ind sponsor | May 18–May 25, 2026 | 578 lv | Michael Baumgartner 53.0% Carmela Conroy 47.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
| Bajun Mavalwalla (D) vs Michael Baumgartner (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Tavern Research ind sponsor | May 18–May 25, 2026 | 578 lv | Michael Baumgartner 54.0% Dem 46.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
| David Womack (D) vs Michael Baumgartner (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Tavern Research ind sponsor | May 18–May 25, 2026 | 578 lv | Michael Baumgartner 54.0% Dem 46.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.