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535

KY-6

  • Zach Dembo (Dem)
  • Ralph Alvarado (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans97%

Republicans are favored, winning 96,964 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans94%

Republicans are favored, winning 94,351 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+16.0

5th–95th interval

R+30.1 to R+2.0

Estimated margin

R+13.5

5th–95th interval

R+27.6 to D+0.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.7

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Ralph Alvarado (R) vs Zach Dembo (D) · 5 polls
GQR dem sponsor Sep 25–Sep 30, 2026 401 lv Zach Dembo 42.0% Ralph Alvarado 37.0% D+5.0 — Source
Lake Research Partners dem sponsor Aug 17–Aug 23, 2026 n/a lv Zach Dembo 45.0% Ralph Alvarado 44.0% D+1.0 — Source
DCCC Targeting Team dem sponsor Jul 29–Jul 30, 2026 474 lv Zach Dembo 47.0% Ralph Alvarado 47.0% Even — Source
GQR dem sponsor Jun 24–Jun 28, 2026 n/a lv Ralph Alvarado 42.0% Zach Dembo 39.0% R+3.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 675 rv Ralph Alvarado 37.0% Zach Dembo 37.0% Even D+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Cherlynn Stevenson (D) vs Ralph Alvarado (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 675 rv Ralph Alvarado 37.0% Dem 36.0% R+1.0 D+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Ryan Dotson (R) vs Zach Dembo (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 675 rv Zach Dembo 38.0% Rep 33.0% D+5.0 D+6.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Cherlynn Stevenson (D) vs Ryan Dotson (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 675 rv Rep 37.0% Dem 36.0% R+1.0 D+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction KY-6 Oct 2, 2026

A GQR poll with Dembo ahead in KY-6 leaves our forecast where it was

Our model still puts the expected margin at about 16 points in Alvarado's favor, essentially unchanged from the run an hour earlier.

A new GQR survey of 401 likely voters in Kentucky's 6th District, fielded September 25-30, puts Democrat Zach Dembo at 42 percent and Republican Ralph Alvarado at 37 percent. It is the only new poll of the race in this update.

Our forecast did not change in any meaningful way. Our model gives...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction KY-6 Aug 31, 2026

April polls in KY-6 land close, and our estimate widens toward Alvarado

Three Public Policy Polling matchups from the spring show a near-tie, but our model's mean margin has moved about five points toward the Republican.

Three matchups from a Public Policy Polling survey of 675 registered voters in Kentucky's 6th District, fielded April 24-25, 2026, all came in close. Republican Ralph Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo tied at 37 percent in the head-to-head. Alvarado took 37 percent to 36 percent for an unnamed...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction KY-6 Aug 31, 2026

A one-point poll in KY-6 nudges our forecast, not its shape

Lake Research Partners finds Zach Dembo and Ralph Alvarado effectively tied, but our model still gives the Republican a 91% chance in Kentucky's 6th District.

One new survey in Kentucky's 6th District shows a close race. Lake Research Partners, polling 400 likely voters from August 17 to 23, had Democrat Zach Dembo at 45% and Republican Ralph Alvarado at 44%. On a sample that size, a one-point gap is not a lead; the poll says the two candidates are...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5