CA-40
Tossup
Democrats51%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 50,530 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Tossup
Democrats51%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 50,530 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+0.2
5th–95th interval
R+13.9 to D+14.1
Estimated margin
D+0.2
5th–95th interval
R+13.9 to D+14.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esther Kim-Varet (D) vs Ken Calvert (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tulchin Research dem sponsor | Jan 14–Jan 19, 2026 | 800 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 44.0% | Even | — | Source |
| Esther Kim-Varet (D) vs Young Kim (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tulchin Research dem sponsor | Jan 14–Jan 19, 2026 | 800 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 43.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.