TX-23
- Katy Padilla Stout (Dem)
- Brandon Herrera (Rep)
Favors Rep
Republicans95%
Republicans are favored, winning 94,856 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans95%
Republicans are favored, winning 94,856 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+13.9
5th–95th interval
R+27.9 to D+0.1
Estimated margin
R+13.9
5th–95th interval
R+27.9 to D+0.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Mar 10–Mar 11, 2026 | 521 rv | Brandon Herrera 42.0% Katy Padilla Stout 40.0% | R+2.0 | R+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.