Skip to content
535

NE-1

  • Chris Backemeyer (Dem)
  • Mike Flood (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans87%

Republicans are favored, winning 86,810 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans86%

Republicans are favored, winning 85,901 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+9.5

5th–95th interval

R+23.4 to D+4.5

Estimated margin

R+9.1

5th–95th interval

R+23.0 to D+4.8

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+0.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Chris Backemeyer (D) vs Mike Flood (R) · 3 polls
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026 600 lv Chris Backemeyer 43.0% Mike Flood 42.0% D+1.0 — Source
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026 600 lv Chris Backemeyer 49.0% Mike Flood 45.0% D+4.0 — Source
Zenith Research ind sponsor May 8–May 11, 2026 401 rv Mike Flood 45.0% Chris Backemeyer 38.0% R+7.0 — Source
Austin Ahlman (I) vs Mike Flood (R) · 1 poll
Zenith Research ind sponsor May 8–May 11, 2026 401 rv Mike Flood 44.0% Ind 36.0% — — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NE-1 Sep 16, 2026

Two Democratic-sponsored polls show a close NE-1 race; our forecast is unchanged

Global Strategy Group has Chris Backemeyer within a point or two of Rep. Mike Flood, but our model still gives the Democrat a 13 percent chance.

Two new surveys of Nebraska's 1st District from Global Strategy Group, both sponsored by the Fight for Nebraska PAC, both of 600 likely voters fielded August 31 to September 3, show a close contest. One has Democrat Chris Backemeyer at 49 percent and Republican Rep. Mike Flood at 45 percent. The...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5