NY-17

Cait Conley (Dem)
Mike Lawler (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Dem

Democrats67%

Democrats are favored, winning 66,729 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats65%

Democrats are favored, winning 65,281 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+3.7

5th–95th interval

R+10.2 to D+17.6

Estimated margin

D+3.3

5th–95th interval

R+10.5 to D+17.3

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.3 current average: D+1.2

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
McLaughlin & Associates rep sponsor	Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026	400 lv	Mike Lawler 50.0% Cait Conley 47.0%	R+3.0	R+0.2 R+2.8 lean removed	Source
Emerson College	Sep 27–Sep 29, 2026	400 lv	Cait Conley 47.9% Mike Lawler 45.6%	D+2.3	D+1.6 D+0.7 lean removed	Source
co/efficient	Jul 20–Jul 22, 2026	1,292 lv	Mike Lawler 50.0% Cait Conley 45.0%	R+5.0	R+2.7 R+2.3 lean removed	Source
FM3 Research dem sponsor	Jun 27–Jul 1, 2026	509 lv	Cait Conley 51.0% Mike Lawler 45.0%	D+6.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NY-17 Oct 2, 2026

McLaughlin poll shows Lawler up 3 in NY-17; our forecast barely moves

A Republican internal-style survey from McLaughlin & Associates puts Lawler at 50% and Conley at 47%, and our model's estimate for Conley ticks up one point.

A McLaughlin & Associates survey of 400 likely voters in New York's 17th District, fielded September 28-30, found Republican incumbent Mike Lawler at 50% and Democrat Cait Conley at 47%. A three-point gap in a sample that size is within ordinary sampling error. The race is close.

The poll did...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction NY-17 Oct 1, 2026

Emerson poll finds NY-17 close, and our forecast for Conley edges down

A new survey shows Cait Conley narrowly ahead of Rep. Mike Lawler, a smaller margin than our model expected, and our estimate of her chances slipped two points.

An Emerson College survey for PIX 11 of 400 likely voters, fielded September 27-29, found Democrat Cait Conley at 47.9% and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler at 45.6%. That 2.3-point gap is small for a sample of that size, and the race in this poll is close.

Our model now gives Conley a 67 in 100...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5