AR-2

Chris Jones (Dem)
French Hill (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans78%

Republicans are favored, winning 78,177 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans78%

Republicans are favored, winning 78,177 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+6.7

5th–95th interval

R+20.7 to D+7.3

Estimated margin

R+6.7

5th–95th interval

R+20.7 to D+7.3

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+4.0 current average: D+4.0

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Hendrix College	Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026	1,112 lv	Chris Jones 48.0% French Hill 44.0%	D+4.0	—	Source
2040 Strategy Group dem sponsor	Apr 28–May 8, 2026	n/a lv	Chris Jones 46.0% French Hill 43.0%	D+3.0	—	Source
2040 Strategy Group dem sponsor	Apr 28–May 8, 2026	n/a rv	Chris Jones 47.0% French Hill 41.0%	D+6.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction AR-2 Aug 20, 2026

One poll narrows our AR-2 forecast, but Republicans stay favored

A Hendrix College survey put the Democrat at 48% and the Republican at 44%; our model moved the seat from 21 in 100 to 34 in 100 for the Democrat.

A Hendrix College survey of 1,112 likely voters in Arkansas' 2nd District, fielded August 12-13, put the Democratic candidate at 48% and the Republican at 44%. The poll is the only new number in this race, and it is closer than what our model had been carrying.

Our forecast moved accordingly....

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note AR-2 Aug 20, 2026

Model moves toward the Democrat in Arkansas' 2nd District

Our estimate of the Democrat's chance rose from 21% to 34% in four days, with a Hendrix College poll in the field beforehand.

Our forecast in Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District moved 12.3 points toward the Democrat over four days. On August 16 our model gave the Democrat a 21% chance; as of August 20 it gives the Democrat a 34 in 100 chance, with the Republican at 66%.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model now...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5