AR-2
Republicans are favored, winning in 78 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 78%
Estimated margin
R+8.4
5th–95th interval
R+25.9 to D+9.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+6.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2040 Strategy Group | Apr 28–May 8, 2026 | 660 rv | Dem 47.0% Rep 41.0% | D+6.0 | — | Source |
| 2040 Strategy Group | Apr 28–May 8, 2026 | 660 lv | Dem 46.0% Rep 43.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.