CA-21
- Jim Costa (Dem · incumbent)
- Kyle Kirkland (Rep)
Favors Dem
Democrats97%
Democrats are favored, winning 97,044 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats97%
Democrats are favored, winning 97,044 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+16.0
5th–95th interval
D+2.0 to D+29.9
Estimated margin
D+16.0
5th–95th interval
D+2.0 to D+29.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.