IL-4
- Patty Garcia (Dem)
- Lupe Castillo (Rep)
- Chris Getty (Ind)
Favors Dem
Democrats100%
Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats100%
Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+50.4
5th–95th interval
D+36.5 to D+64.4
Estimated margin
D+50.4
5th–95th interval
D+36.5 to D+64.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+17.9 current average: D+17.9
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 31–Aug 3, 2026 | 653 rv | Patty Garcia 34.0% Lupe Castillo 15.0% Chris Getty 9.0% Other 4.0% | D+19.0 | D+17.9 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.