IL-4
Democrats are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 100%
Estimated margin
D+45.2
5th–95th interval
D+28.2 to D+62.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+19.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Center Voice | Jul 31–Aug 1, 2026 | 653 rv | Dem 34.0% Rep 15.0% Ind 9.0% | D+19.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.