FL-25
- Jared Moskowitz (Dem)
- Scott Singer (Rep)
Favors Dem
Democrats99%
Democrats are favored, winning 98,975 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats99%
Democrats are favored, winning 98,975 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+19.7
5th–95th interval
D+5.7 to D+33.7
Estimated margin
D+19.7
5th–95th interval
D+5.7 to D+33.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Larkin (D) vs Scott Singer (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Middle Seat dem sponsor | May 5–May 6, 2026 | 576 lv | Dem 45.0% Scott Singer 33.0% | D+12.0 | — | Source |
| George Moraitis (R) vs Oliver Larkin (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Middle Seat dem sponsor | May 5–May 6, 2026 | 576 lv | Dem 43.0% Rep 34.0% | D+9.0 | — | Source |
| Jared Moskowitz (D) vs Scott Singer (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Beacon Insights dem sponsor | May 1–May 2, 2026 | 461 rv | Jared Moskowitz 42.9% Scott Singer 32.7% | D+10.2 | — | Source |
| George Moraitis (R) vs Jared Moskowitz (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Beacon Insights dem sponsor | May 1–May 2, 2026 | 461 rv | Jared Moskowitz 40.1% Rep 38.5% | D+1.6 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.