PA-8
- Paige Cognetti (Dem)
- Rob Bresnahan (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Dem
Democrats86%
Democrats are favored, winning 85,844 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats86%
Democrats are favored, winning 85,810 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+9.1
5th–95th interval
R+4.9 to D+23.1
Estimated margin
D+9.1
5th–95th interval
R+4.9 to D+23.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+0.9
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners dem sponsor | Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 | 400 lv | Paige Cognetti 47.0% Rob Bresnahan 45.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Impact Research dem sponsor | Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026 | 500 lv | Paige Cognetti 46.0% Rob Bresnahan 45.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Aug 27–Aug 28, 2025 | 615 rv | Paige Cognetti 45.0% Rob Bresnahan 43.0% | D+2.0 | D+3.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.