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535

WA-3

  • Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Dem · incumbent)
  • John Braun (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats90%

Democrats are favored, winning 90,310 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats90%

Democrats are favored, winning 90,243 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+11.1

5th–95th interval

R+3.0 to D+25.0

Estimated margin

D+11.0

5th–95th interval

R+3.0 to D+24.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.0 current average: R+1.0

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
DHM Research Sep 17–Sep 27, 2026 543 lv John Braun 48.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 47.0% R+1.0 — Source
Emerson College dem sponsor Jul 8–Jul 10, 2026 500 lv John Braun 43.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 42.0% R+1.0 R+1.7 D+0.7 lean removed Source
co/efficient rep sponsor Apr 25–Apr 29, 2026 982 lv John Braun 41.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 34.0% R+7.0 R+4.7 R+2.3 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction WA-3 Oct 1, 2026

New WA-3 poll finds a close race and trims Gluesenkamp Perez's odds in our model

A DHM Research survey has Braun at 48% and the Democratic incumbent at 47%, and our forecast's expected margin in the district narrows by about four points.

A DHM Research survey for Oregon Public Broadcasting of 543 likely voters in Washington's 3rd District, fielded September 17-27, found Republican John Braun at 48% and Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez at 47%. A one-point gap in a sample of that size is a close race, not a lead for either...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5