TX-10

Caitlin Rourk (Dem)
Chris Gober (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 98,738 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans98%

Republicans are favored, winning 98,289 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+18.8

5th–95th interval

R+32.9 to R+4.9

Estimated margin

R+17.9

5th–95th interval

R+31.9 to R+3.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+8.2

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Change Research dem sponsor	Sep 18–Sep 22, 2026	613 lv	Chris Gober 48.0% Caitlin Rourk 41.0%	R+7.0	R+7.5 D+0.5 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction TX-10 Oct 1, 2026

New TX-10 poll closer than our average, but the forecast holds steady

A Change Research survey puts Republican Chris Gober 7 points ahead of Democrat Caitlin Rourk, a narrower gap than our model expects, and his chances did not move.

A Change Research survey of 613 likely voters in Texas's 10th District, fielded September 18-22, found Republican Chris Gober at 48 percent and Democrat Caitlin Rourk at 41 percent.

The poll did not change our forecast. Our model gives Rourk a 1 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5