NH-1

Stefany Shaheen (Dem)
Anthony DiLorenzo (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats97%

Democrats are favored, winning 96,972 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats97%

Democrats are favored, winning 96,972 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+16.0

5th–95th interval

D+2.0 to D+29.9

Estimated margin

D+16.0

5th–95th interval

D+2.0 to D+29.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+4.0 current average: D+4.0

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
University of New Hampshire	Sep 17–Sep 21, 2026	707 lv	Stefany Shaheen 46.0% Anthony DiLorenzo 42.0%	D+4.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NH-1 Sep 24, 2026

New Hampshire poll narrows our NH-1 margin without changing the favorite

A University of New Hampshire survey has Stefany Shaheen four points ahead of Anthony DiLorenzo, and our model trims her mean margin by nearly five points.

A University of New Hampshire survey of 707 likely voters, fielded September 17-21, puts Democrat Stefany Shaheen at 46 percent and Republican Anthony DiLorenzo at 42 percent in New Hampshire's 1st District. It is the only new number in this race, and it describes a close contest rather than a...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5