CA-4
Democrats are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 100%
Estimated margin
D+42.2
5th–95th interval
D+24.8 to D+59.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.