CO-8

Manny Rutinel (Dem)
Gabe Evans (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Dem

Democrats88%

Democrats are favored, winning 87,826 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats87%

Democrats are favored, winning 86,664 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+9.9

5th–95th interval

R+4.0 to D+23.9

Estimated margin

D+9.4

5th–95th interval

R+4.5 to D+23.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.9

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
McLaughlin & Associates rep sponsor	Sep 16–Sep 17, 2026	400 lv	Gabe Evans 48.0% Manny Rutinel 46.3%	R+1.7	D+1.1 R+2.8 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction CO-8 Sep 23, 2026

A close CO-8 poll leaves our forecast where it was

McLaughlin & Associates shows Gabe Evans and Manny Rutinel within two points, but our model still gives the Democrat an 87 in 100 chance.

The only new survey in Colorado's 8th District shows a close race. McLaughlin & Associates, polling 400 likely voters on September 16-17 for Enhancing American Competitiveness, put Republican incumbent Gabe Evans at 48.0 percent and Democrat Manny Rutinel at 46.3 percent. A gap of 1.7 points on a...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5