FL-15
- Robert People (Dem)
- Laurel Lee (Rep · incumbent)
Tossup
Republicans58%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 57,791 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Tossup
Republicans58%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 57,791 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+1.6
5th–95th interval
R+15.6 to D+12.4
Estimated margin
R+1.6
5th–95th interval
R+15.6 to D+12.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.