IA-3
- Sarah Trone Garriott (Dem)
- Zach Nunn (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Dem
Democrats79%
Democrats are favored, winning 79,163 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats79%
Democrats are favored, winning 79,163 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+6.9
5th–95th interval
R+7.1 to D+20.9
Estimated margin
D+6.9
5th–95th interval
R+7.1 to D+20.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs Zach Nunn (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor | Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026 | 400 lv | Zach Nunn 48.0% Sarah Trone Garriott 42.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
| Jennifer Konfrst (D) vs Zach Nunn (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 17–Sep 18, 2025 | 717 rv | Dem 44.0% Zach Nunn 44.0% | Even | D+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.