IA-3
Democrats are favored, winning in 71 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 71%
Estimated margin
D+5.5
5th–95th interval
R+11.5 to D+22.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs Zach Nunn (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 42.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
| Jennifer Konfrst (D) vs Zach Nunn (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 17–Sep 18, 2025 | 717 rv | Rep 44.0% Dem 44.0% | Even | D+0.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.