UT-2

Peter Crosby (Dem)
Blake Moore (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans91%

Republicans are favored, winning 91,297 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans91%

Republicans are favored, winning 91,297 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+11.6

5th–95th interval

R+25.4 to D+2.4

Estimated margin

R+11.6

5th–95th interval

R+25.4 to D+2.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+5.0 current average: R+5.0

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Lighthouse Research	Sep 10–Sep 24, 2026	515 rv	Blake Moore 39.0% Peter Crosby 34.0% Other 4.9%	R+5.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction UT-2 Oct 1, 2026

New UT-2 poll nudges our forecast toward Crosby, but Moore remains favored

A single Lighthouse Research survey showing a five-point race moved our Utah 2nd District margin about two points, from R+13.0 to R+11.2.

A Lighthouse Research survey of 515 registered voters in Utah's 2nd District, fielded September 10-24, found Republican Blake Moore at 39% and Democrat Peter Crosby at 34%, with 4.9% choosing another option. That leaves a large share of respondents undecided. With a sample of that size and many...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5