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535

MN-2

  • Matt Little (Dem)
  • Eric Pratt (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,794 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,794 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+24.2

5th–95th interval

D+10.3 to D+38.1

Estimated margin

D+24.2

5th–95th interval

D+10.3 to D+38.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Eric Pratt (R) vs Matt Little (D) · 2 polls
Impact Research dem sponsor Sep 9–Sep 13, 2026 500 lv Matt Little 52.0% Eric Pratt 40.0% D+12.0 — Source
Harper Polling rep sponsor Jun 18–Jun 21, 2026 415 lv Matt Little 45.0% Eric Pratt 40.0% D+5.0 D+3.3 D+1.7 lean removed Source
Eric Pratt (R) vs Kaela Berg (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Harper Polling rep sponsor Jun 18–Jun 21, 2026 415 lv Dem 43.0% Eric Pratt 43.0% Even R+1.7 D+1.7 lean removed Source
Eric Pratt (R) vs Matt Klein (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Harper Polling rep sponsor Jun 18–Jun 21, 2026 415 lv Dem 43.0% Eric Pratt 42.0% D+1.0 R+0.7 D+1.7 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MN-2 Sep 24, 2026

New MN-2 poll shows Little up 12, and our forecast does not move

Impact Research puts the Democrat at 52 percent to the Republican's 40; our model still gives Matt Little a near-certain chance and a mean margin of about 24 points.

One new survey in Minnesota's 2nd District has Democrat Matt Little at 52 percent and Republican Eric Pratt at 40 percent. Impact Research fielded it September 9-13 among 500 likely voters.

Our forecast did not change. As of our 12:02 PM ET run on September 24, the model gives Little a 100 in...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5