Polls
Every poll this model reads, newest arrival first.
as of Oct 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Ordered by when each poll reached us, not when it was taken. A poll fielded in May that arrives today sits at the top; the dates in the “Fielded” column are the ones the pollster was in the field. Race pages order the same polls the other way, by field date, because there the question is what the numbers say now.
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are listed and labelled, but are not in the published average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to bring them in. How they are treated.
1,939 polls in the corpus · page 2 of 20
| Pollster | Race | Fielded | Sample | Results | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrived October 9, 2026 · 18 polls | ||||||
| Emerson College | Iowa Senate | Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026 | 650 lv | Ashley Hinson 46.6% Josh Turek 45.0% Other 1.5% | R+1.6 | Source |
| GQR dem sponsor | Minnesota Senate | Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026 | 800 lv | Dem 50.0% Rep 42.0% Ind 4.0% Other 2.0% | D+8.0 | Source |
| GQR dem sponsor | Minnesota Senate | Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026 | 800 lv | Dem 53.0% Rep 44.0% | D+9.0 | Source |
| Targoz Market Research | Florida Senate | Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 | 1,171 rv | Ashley Moody 50.0% Dem 38.0% | R+12.0 | Source |
| Targoz Market Research | Florida Senate | Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 | 847 lv | Ashley Moody 52.0% Dem 42.0% | R+10.0 | Source |
| Arrived October 8, 2026 · 13 polls | ||||||
| Lake Research Partners dem sponsor | KY-6 | Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026 | 400 lv | Zach Dembo 46.0% Ralph Alvarado 40.0% Ind 3.0% Other 1.0% | D+6.0 | Source |
| Pew Research Center | Generic ballot | Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 | 3,917 rv | Dem 44.0% Rep 36.0% Other 5.0% | D+8.0 | Source |
| Change Research dem sponsor | KY-6 | Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026 | 524 lv | Zach Dembo 47.0% Ralph Alvarado 38.0% | D+9.0 | Source |
| co/efficient | Ohio Senate | Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026 | 925 lv | Jon Husted 44.0% Sherrod Brown 43.0% Ind 3.0% Other 1.0% | R+1.0 | Source |
| co/efficient | Ohio Senate | Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026 | 925 lv | Jon Husted 46.0% Sherrod Brown 45.0% | R+1.0 | Source |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | North Carolina Senate | Sep 30–Oct 3, 2026 | 810 lv | Roy Cooper 50.0% Michael Whatley 43.0% Other 0.0% | D+7.0 | Source |
| Neighborhood Research Corporation | NC-1 | Oct 1–Oct 6, 2026 | 303 lv | Don Davis 51.0% Laurie Buckhout 41.0% | D+10.0 | Source |
| St. Pete Polls | Florida Senate | Oct 5–Oct 7, 2026 | 836 lv | Ashley Moody 46.8% Dem 44.9% | R+1.9 | Source |
| YouGov | Texas Senate | Sep 18–Sep 28, 2026 | 850 lv | Ken Paxton 45.0% James Talarico 45.0% Other 2.0% | Even | Source |
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | NY-18 | Sep 29–Sep 30, 2026 | 561 rv | Pat Ryan 52.0% Jacqueline Auringer 35.0% | D+17.0 | Source |
| Impact Research dem sponsor | TX-2 | Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026 | 501 lv | Steve Toth 46.0% Shaun Finnie 37.0% | R+9.0 | Source |
| CNN/SSRS | Iowa Senate | Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026 | 801 lv | Ashley Hinson 45.0% Josh Turek 43.0% | R+2.0 | Source |
| CNN/SSRS | Ohio Senate | Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026 | 760 lv | Sherrod Brown 49.0% Jon Husted 43.0% | D+6.0 | Source |
| Arrived October 7, 2026 · 16 polls | ||||||
| Guidant Polling and Strategy partisan sponsor | Texas Senate | Sep 20–Sep 28, 2026 | 800 lv | James Talarico 47.0% Ken Paxton 44.0% Other 4.0% | D+3.0 | Source |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy partisan sponsor | Michigan Senate | Sep 20–Sep 27, 2026 | 800 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 48.0% Mike Rogers 43.0% Other 0.0% | D+5.0 | Source |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy partisan sponsor | Michigan Senate | Sep 20–Sep 27, 2026 | 800 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 49.0% Mike Rogers 45.0% | D+4.0 | Source |
| Impact Research dem sponsor | TN-5 | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | 552 lv | Charlie Hatcher 46.0% Chaz Molder 41.0% | R+5.0 | Source |
| GQR dem sponsor | NC-1 | Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026 | 500 lv | Don Davis 47.0% Laurie Buckhout 39.0% | D+8.0 | Source |
| Cygnal | Generic ballot | Oct 1–Oct 2, 2026 | 1,500 lv | Dem 51.6% Rep 42.5% | D+9.1 | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Alaska Senate | Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026 | 1,512 lv | Mary Peltola 47.0% Rep 3.0% | D+44.0 | Source |
| Alaska Survey Research | Alaska Senate | Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026 | 1,512 lv | Mary Peltola 51.0% Dan Sullivan 49.0% | D+2.0 | Source |
| Quantus Insights | Michigan Senate | Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026 | 744 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 48.4% Mike Rogers 47.2% Other 0.3% | D+1.2 | Source |
| Centerline Research & Strategy | Generic ballot | Sep 26–Oct 1, 2026 | 1,463 a | Dem 43.0% Rep 33.0% | D+10.0 | Source |
| Centerline Research & Strategy | Generic ballot | Sep 26–Oct 1, 2026 | 1,239 rv | Dem 49.0% Rep 39.0% | D+10.0 | Source |
| Centerline Research & Strategy | Generic ballot | Sep 26–Oct 1, 2026 | 930 lv | Dem 50.0% Rep 42.0% | D+8.0 | Source |
| GBAO dem sponsor | Kansas Senate | Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026 | 600 lv | Adam Hamilton 49.0% Roger Marshall 44.0% | D+5.0 | Source |
| GBAO dem sponsor | Kansas Senate | Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026 | 600 lv | Adam Hamilton 46.0% Roger Marshall 41.0% Other 7.0% | D+5.0 | Source |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Florida Senate | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | 625 rv | Ashley Moody 50.0% Dem 40.0% Other 2.0% | R+10.0 | Source |
| Suffolk University | Iowa Senate | Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026 | 500 lv | Josh Turek 48.0% Ashley Hinson 43.6% Other 2.2% | D+4.4 | Source |
| Arrived October 6, 2026 · 19 polls | ||||||
| YouGov | Generic ballot | Oct 2–Oct 5, 2026 | 1,372 rv | Dem 47.0% Rep 38.0% | D+9.0 | Source |
| YouGov | Generic ballot | Oct 2–Oct 5, 2026 | 995 lv | Dem 52.0% Rep 40.0% | D+12.0 | Source |
| YouGov | Generic ballot | Oct 2–Oct 5, 2026 | 1,173 lv | Dem 51.0% Rep 40.0% | D+11.0 | Source |
| YouGov | Kansas Senate | Sep 24–Oct 4, 2026 | 2,253 lv | Adam Hamilton 48.0% Roger Marshall 45.0% | D+3.0 | Source |
| YouGov | Texas Senate | Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026 | 3,623 lv | James Talarico 50.0% Ken Paxton 44.0% | D+6.0 | Source |
| YouGov | Ohio Senate | Sep 18–Sep 30, 2026 | 3,777 lv | Sherrod Brown 49.0% Jon Husted 45.0% | D+4.0 | Source |
| YouGov | Nebraska Senate | Sep 24–Oct 3, 2026 | 1,808 lv | Dem 48.0% Pete Ricketts 47.0% | — | Source |
| YouGov | Michigan Senate | Sep 22–Oct 4, 2026 | 3,947 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 49.0% Mike Rogers 48.0% | D+1.0 | Source |
| YouGov | New Hampshire Senate | Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026 | 1,519 lv | Chris Pappas 51.0% Rep 43.0% | D+8.0 | Source |
| YouGov | Florida Senate | Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026 | 3,812 lv | Ashley Moody 49.0% Dem 44.0% | R+5.0 | Source |
| The Honest Poll | Generic ballot | Oct 4–Oct 6, 2026 | 939 rv | Dem 52.0% Rep 41.0% | D+11.0 | Source |
| The Honest Poll | Generic ballot | Oct 4–Oct 6, 2026 | 780 lv | Dem 54.0% Rep 42.0% | D+12.0 | Source |
| St. Anselm | New Hampshire Senate | Sep 28–Sep 29, 2026 | 1,042 lv | Chris Pappas 51.0% Rep 44.0% | D+7.0 | Source |
| KFF | Generic ballot | Sep 16–Sep 21, 2026 | 1,013 rv | Dem 45.0% Rep 35.0% | D+10.0 | Source |
| FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs | AZ-1 | Oct 1, 2026 | 400 rv | Amish Shah 44.4% Jay Feely 41.6% | D+2.8 | Source |
| SurveyUSA | New Mexico Senate | Sep 25–Sep 30, 2026 | 567 lv | Ben Ray Luján 54.0% Larry Marker 36.0% | D+18.0 | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Illinois Senate | Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026 | 569 rv | Juliana Stratton 49.0% Don Tracy 36.0% | D+13.0 | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | FL-16 | Oct 1–Oct 2, 2026 | 530 rv | Sydney Gruters 43.0% Kelly Kirschner 39.0% | R+4.0 | Source |
| Marist University | Maine Senate | Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026 | 1,505 rv | Troy Jackson 51.0% Susan Collins 47.0% | D+4.0 | Source |
| Arrived October 5, 2026 · 5 polls | ||||||
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Michigan Senate | Oct 1, 2026 | n/a lv | Abdul El-Sayed 45.6% Mike Rogers 41.4% Other 1.0% | D+4.2 | Source |
| Ipsos | Generic ballot | Sep 30–Oct 5, 2026 | 4,506 a | Dem 37.0% Rep 30.0% Other 2.0% | D+7.0 | Source |
| Ipsos | Generic ballot | Sep 30–Oct 5, 2026 | 3,526 rv | Dem 44.0% Rep 37.0% Other 2.0% | D+7.0 | Source |
| Morning Consult | Generic ballot | Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 | 17,659 lv | Dem 49.9% Rep 43.2% | D+6.6 | Source |
| Maine People's Resource Center | Maine Senate | Sep 25–Sep 29, 2026 | 684 lv | Troy Jackson 49.3% Susan Collins 46.5% | D+2.8 | Source |
| Arrived October 4, 2026 · 4 polls | ||||||
| Impact Research dem sponsor | WI-1 | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | 500 lv | Mitchell Berman 48.0% Bryan Steil 47.0% | D+1.0 | Source |
| ActiVote | Generic ballot | Sep 22–Oct 2, 2026 | 1,000 lv | Dem 52.2% Rep 47.8% | D+4.4 | Source |
| Wedgewood Polls | Georgia Senate | Oct 2–Oct 3, 2026 | 600 lv | Jon Ossoff 55.0% Mike Collins 45.0% | D+10.0 | Source |
| YouGov | Generic ballot | Sep 30–Oct 2, 2026 | 1,572 lv | Dem 54.0% Rep 45.0% | D+9.0 | Source |
| Arrived October 3, 2026 · 9 polls | ||||||
| The New York Times/Siena University | AK-1 | Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026 | 504 lv | Nick Begich III 46.6% Bill Hill 35.1% Dem 8.2% Other 5.5% | R+38.4 | Source |
| The New York Times/Siena University | AK-1 | Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026 | 487 lv | Nick Begich III 48.9% Bill Hill 36.8% Dem 8.6% Other 5.8% | R+40.3 | Source |
| The New York Times/Siena University | AK-1 | Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026 | 476 lv | Nick Begich III 53.0% Bill Hill 47.0% | — | Source |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Alaska Senate | Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026 | 504 lv | Mary Peltola 50.1% Dan Sullivan 43.1% | D+7.0 | Source |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Iowa Senate | Sep 22–Oct 1, 2026 | 606 lv | Ashley Hinson 47.8% Josh Turek 47.0% | R+0.9 | Source |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Ohio Senate | Sep 22–Oct 1, 2026 | 616 lv | Sherrod Brown 48.8% Jon Husted 46.1% | D+2.7 | Source |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Texas Senate | Sep 21–Sep 30, 2026 | 615 lv | James Talarico 50.8% Ken Paxton 45.1% | D+5.7 | Source |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Kansas Senate | Sep 22–Sep 30, 2026 | 605 lv | Adam Hamilton 44.9% Roger Marshall 44.8% Other 4.9% | D+0.1 | Source |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Kansas Senate | Sep 22–Sep 30, 2026 | 605 lv | Roger Marshall 46.7% Adam Hamilton 46.4% | R+0.3 | Source |
| Arrived October 2, 2026 · 23 polls | ||||||
| Peak Insights rep sponsor | Idaho Senate | Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | 500 lv | Jim Risch 49.0% Ind 3.0% Other 2.0% | R+46.0 | Source |
| Trafalgar Group rep sponsor | Kansas Senate | Sep 29–Oct 1, 2026 | 1,095 lv | Adam Hamilton 44.4% Roger Marshall 43.5% Other 2.0% | D+0.9 | Source |
| YouGov | Maine Senate | Sep 23–Oct 1, 2026 | 1,136 lv | Susan Collins 50.0% Troy Jackson 50.0% | Even | Source |
| Trafalgar Group rep sponsor | Maine Senate | Sep 29–Oct 1, 2026 | 1,091 lv | Troy Jackson 46.2% Susan Collins 45.9% | D+0.3 | Source |
| co/efficient | SC-1 | Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026 | 837 lv | Jenny Costa Honeycutt 46.0% Nancy Lacore 40.0% Other 4.0% | R+6.0 | Source |
| co/efficient | VA-6 | Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | 791 lv | Ben Cline 59.0% Beth Macy 29.0% | R+30.0 | Source |
| co/efficient | Nebraska Senate | Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | 1,113 lv | Pete Ricketts 44.0% Dem 40.0% Other 1.0% | — | Source |
| co/efficient | Nebraska Senate | Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | 1,113 lv | Pete Ricketts 47.0% Dem 44.0% | — | Source |
| GQR dem sponsor | KY-6 | Sep 25–Sep 30, 2026 | 401 lv | Zach Dembo 42.0% Ralph Alvarado 37.0% | D+5.0 | Source |
| Big Data Poll | Minnesota Senate | Sep 29–Sep 30, 2026 | 622 lv | Dem 45.8% Rep 43.6% Ind 5.4% Other 5.2% | D+2.2 | Source |
| Quantus Insights | Alaska Senate | Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | 758 lv | Mary Peltola 46.5% Rep 1.5% | D+45.0 | Source |
| Quantus Insights | Alaska Senate | Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | 758 lv | Dan Sullivan 46.5% Mary Peltola 46.2% | R+0.3 | Source |
| The Bullfinch Group ind sponsor | AK-1 | Sep 1–Sep 6, 2026 | 820 lv | Nick Begich III 50.3% Bill Hill 46.5% | — | Source |
| The Bullfinch Group ind sponsor | AK-1 | Sep 1–Sep 6, 2026 | 820 lv | Nick Begich III 44.2% Bill Hill 36.6% Dem 7.4% Other 1.9% | R+36.8 | Source |
| McLaughlin & Associates rep sponsor | NY-17 | Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | 400 lv | Mike Lawler 50.0% Cait Conley 47.0% | R+3.0 | Source |
| InsiderAdvantage | South Carolina Senate | Sep 28–Sep 29, 2026 | 1,200 lv | Rep 46.0% Annie Andrews 45.0% Other 3.0% | R+1.0 | Source |
| Tulchin Research dem sponsor | ME-2 | Sep 27–Sep 30, 2026 | 500 lv | Matthew Dunlap 50.0% Paul LePage 48.0% | D+2.0 | Source |
| Expedition Strategies dem sponsor | VA-5 | Sep 21–Sep 24, 2026 | 400 lv | John McGuire 46.0% Tom Perriello 45.0% Ind 6.0% | R+1.0 | Source |
| Global Strategy Group dem sponsor | Kansas Senate | Sep 13–Sep 16, 2026 | 800 lv | Adam Hamilton 47.0% Roger Marshall 43.0% Other 5.0% | D+4.0 | Source |
| Global Strategy Group dem sponsor | Kansas Senate | Sep 13–Sep 16, 2026 | 800 lv | Adam Hamilton 49.0% Roger Marshall 47.0% | D+2.0 | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Texas Senate | Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026 | 1,203 rv | James Talarico 53.0% Ken Paxton 46.0% | D+7.0 | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Iowa Senate | Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026 | 1,204 rv | Josh Turek 50.0% Ashley Hinson 46.0% | D+4.0 | Source |
| Trafalgar Group rep sponsor | Michigan Senate | Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026 | 1,085 lv | Abdul El-Sayed 46.9% Mike Rogers 45.1% Other 0.1% | D+1.8 | Source |
| Arrived October 1, 2026 · 21 polls | ||||||
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Texas Senate | Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026 | 881 lv | James Talarico 51.0% Ken Paxton 49.0% | D+2.0 | Source |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Iowa Senate | Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026 | 1,008 lv | Josh Turek 49.0% Ashley Hinson 47.0% | D+2.0 | Source |
| Wedgewood Polls | Maine Senate | Sep 27–Oct 1, 2026 | 400 lv | Troy Jackson 52.0% Susan Collins 48.0% | D+4.0 | Source |
| Lake Research Partners dem sponsor | SD-1 | Aug 26–Aug 30, 2026 | 500 lv | Marty Jackley 47.0% Nikki Gronli 43.0% | R+4.0 | Source |
| AlphaROC | Generic ballot | Sep 25–Sep 28, 2026 | 1,000 a | Dem 43.4% Rep 37.1% Ind 6.0% | D+6.3 | Source |
| DHM Research | WA-3 | Sep 17–Sep 27, 2026 | 543 lv | John Braun 48.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 47.0% | R+1.0 | Source |