Arkansas Senate

Hallie Shoffner (Dem)
Tom Cotton (Rep · incumbent)

Republicans are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Rep

Win probability

R 100%

Estimated margin

R+19.8

5th–95th interval

R+30.9 to R+8.8

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+13.3

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
J.L. Partners	Aug 14–Aug 18, 2026	803 lv	Tom Cotton 51.0% Hallie Shoffner 35.0%	R+16.0	—	Source
2040 Strategy Group	Jul 17–Jul 25, 2026	586 lv	Tom Cotton 46.0% Hallie Shoffner 43.0%	R+3.0	—	Source
GrayHouse	Feb 7–Feb 9, 2026	550 lv	Tom Cotton 58.0% Hallie Shoffner 36.0%	R+22.0	R+20.9 R+1.1 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Arkansas Senate Aug 19, 2026

New Arkansas poll trims Cotton's projected margin, not his odds

J.L. Partners finds Tom Cotton ahead of Hallie Shoffner by 16 points, and our model still gives him a 100% chance in the seat.

A J.L. Partners survey of 803 likely voters in Arkansas, fielded August 14-18, put Republican Sen. Tom Cotton at 51% and Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 35%.

That 16-point margin is narrower than what our model had been carrying, and the model moved accordingly. Our current run has a mean margin of...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5