Arkansas Senate

Hallie Shoffner (Dem)
Tom Cotton (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,997 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,997 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+22.8

5th–95th interval

R+31.8 to R+13.7

Estimated margin

R+22.7

5th–95th interval

R+31.7 to R+13.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+7.4 current average: R+7.1

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Hallie Shoffner (D) vs Jeff Wadlin (LIB) vs Tom Cotton (R) · 2 polls
J.L. Partners	Aug 14–Aug 18, 2026	803 lv	Tom Cotton 51.0% Hallie Shoffner 35.0% Other 4.0%	R+16.0	R+17.2 D+1.2 lean removed	Source
Hendrix College	Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026	1,217 lv	Hallie Shoffner 47.4% Tom Cotton 44.0% Other 3.0%	D+3.4	—	Source
Hallie Shoffner (D) vs Tom Cotton (R) · 2 polls
2040 Strategy Group dem sponsor	Jul 17–Jul 25, 2026	586 lv	Tom Cotton 46.0% Hallie Shoffner 43.0%	R+3.0	—	Source
GrayHouse rep sponsor	Feb 7–Feb 9, 2026	550 lv	Tom Cotton 58.0% Hallie Shoffner 36.0%	R+22.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Arkansas Senate Aug 31, 2026

Arkansas polls diverge, and our projected Cotton margin widens

A J.L. Partners survey has Tom Cotton up 16; an earlier 2040 Strategy Group poll had the race within three, and our model now sits at R+18.6.

Two Arkansas Senate polls are in our average, and they do not agree. A J.L. Partners survey of 803 likely voters, fielded August 14-18, put Republican Tom Cotton at 51 percent and Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 35, with 4 percent for other candidates. A 2040 Strategy Group poll of 586 likely voters,...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Arkansas Senate Aug 19, 2026

Arkansas forecast moves off zero after Hendrix College poll

Our model now gives Hallie Shoffner a 6 percent chance against Tom Cotton, with the projected margin cut to about 10 points.

A Hendrix College survey of 1,217 likely voters in Arkansas, fielded August 11-12, put Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 47 percent and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton at 44 percent. The poll reports no margin of error in what we have, so the three-point gap is best read as a close result rather than a...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Arkansas Senate Aug 19, 2026

New Arkansas poll trims Cotton's projected margin, not his odds

J.L. Partners finds Tom Cotton ahead of Hallie Shoffner by 16 points, and our model still gives him a 100% chance in the seat.

A J.L. Partners survey of 803 likely voters in Arkansas, fielded August 14-18, put Republican Sen. Tom Cotton at 51% and Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 35%.

That 16-point margin is narrower than what our model had been carrying, and the model moved accordingly. Our current run has a mean margin of...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5