Minnesota Senate

Democrats are favored, winning in 91 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Dem

Win probability

D 91%

Estimated margin

D+9.1

5th–95th interval

R+2.0 to D+20.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+5.0

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Michele Tafoya (R) vs Peggy Flanagan (DFL) · 4 polls
KTSP/SurveyUSA	Aug 13–Aug 17, 2026	661 lv	Dem 46.0% Rep 41.0%	D+5.0	—	Source
Impact Research	May 26–May 28, 2026	808 lv	Dem 51.0% Rep 44.0%	D+7.0	—	Source
Emerson College	Feb 6–Feb 8, 2026	1,000 lv	Dem 47.0% Rep 41.0%	D+6.0	D+4.9 D+1.1 lean removed	Source
Impact Research	Jul 8–Jul 11, 2025	604 lv	Dem 48.0% Rep 45.0%	D+3.0	—	Source
Angie Craig (DFL) vs Michele Tafoya (R) · 2 polls
Emerson College	Feb 6–Feb 8, 2026	1,000 lv	Dem 47.0% Rep 40.0%	D+7.0	D+5.9 D+1.1 lean removed	Source
Impact Research	Jul 8–Jul 11, 2025	604 lv	Dem 49.0% Rep 45.0%	D+4.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Minnesota Senate Aug 19, 2026

Minnesota Senate poll shows Democrat up five, and our forecast eases slightly

KTSP/SurveyUSA has the Democrat at 46 percent to the Republican's 41; our model now gives the Democrat a 91 percent chance in the open seat.

A KTSP/SurveyUSA survey of 661 likely voters in Minnesota, fielded August 13-17, puts the Democrat at 46 percent and the Republican at 41 percent. The poll leaves about 13 percent of likely voters unaccounted for between the two parties. No margin of error is attached to the numbers we have, and...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5