Minnesota Senate

Our model has moved 28.3 points toward the Republican in Minnesota's open Senate race over four days. The September 29 run gave the Democrat a 92% chance of winning. The October 3 run gives the Democrat a 63 in 100 chance, and the Republican 37%.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model's...

A new Big Data Poll survey of the open Minnesota Senate seat, sponsored by the Public Polling Project, finds the race close. The poll of 622 likely voters, fielded September 29-30, puts the Democrat at 45.8 percent and the Republican at 43.6 percent. An independent draws 5.4 percent and other...

A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, finds the Minnesota Senate race close. The Democrat takes 46 percent and the Republican 45 percent, with 2 percent for other candidates and 1 percent for an independent. A one-point gap is not a lead. The poll...

Our model now gives the Democrat a 92 in 100 chance of winning Minnesota's open Senate seat. That is up from 83% in our run of September 23 at 8:32 PM ET, a gain of 8.2 points of Democratic win probability over six days. The headline figures are rounded, which is why they differ by slightly more...

Our model now gives the Democrat an 83 in 100 chance in Minnesota's open Senate race, up from 65 percent in our run of September 16. That is a move of 18.1 points toward the Democrat over seven days, and it undoes the decline we wrote about earlier this month.

The margin estimate moved with it....

A SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, fielded September 9-14 among 654 likely voters, has the Minnesota Senate race even at 42-42, with 2 percent for an independent candidate and 2 percent for other candidates.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 65 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down...

A co/efficient survey of 833 likely voters in Minnesota, fielded September 14-15, put the Democrat at 43 percent and the Republican at 42 percent, with 2 percent for an independent and 2 percent for other candidates. That one-point gap is too small to call a lead. The race, on this poll, is...

Our model now gives the Democrat a 78 in 100 chance in the Minnesota Senate race, down from 94 percent in our run of September 8. That is a move of 16.3 points toward the Republican over seven days. Our projected margin narrowed over the same span, from D+9.7 to D+4.6, and our 5th-to-95th...

A Quantus Insights survey of 720 likely voters in Minnesota, fielded September 8-10, put the Democrat at 48.9 percent and the Republican at 45.4 percent. That is a gap of three and a half points on a sample of that size, close enough that the poll on its own does not establish who is ahead. It is...

Two new surveys of the Minnesota Senate race from TIPP Insights, sponsored by the League of American Workers and fielded August 31 to September 2, both show a close contest. Among 1,192 likely voters, the Democrat took 43.96 percent to the Republican's 41.86, with 2.99 percent for an independent...

The newly logged polling in Minnesota's open Senate race is not fresh, and it does not say anything the earlier numbers did not. The most recent of the group, an Impact Research survey of 808 likely voters fielded May 26-28, 2026, had the Democrat at 51 percent and the Republican at 44. An...

A Deep Root Analytics survey of 597 registered voters in Minnesota, fielded August 17-18, put the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 45 percent. It is the only new poll in this race in our payload.

Our model now gives the Democrat an 87 in 100 chance in the Minnesota Senate race, with...

A KTSP/SurveyUSA survey of 661 likely voters in Minnesota, fielded August 13-17, puts the Democrat at 46 percent and the Republican at 41 percent. The poll leaves about 13 percent of likely voters unaccounted for between the two parties. No margin of error is attached to the numbers we have, and...