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535

Alabama Senate

  • Everett Wess (Dem)
  • Barry Moore (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,998 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,997 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+21.3

5th–95th interval

R+30.3 to R+12.2

Estimated margin

R+20.9

5th–95th interval

R+29.9 to R+11.8

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+15.0 current average: R+17.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
RMG Research rep sponsor Sep 21–Sep 25, 2026 800 rv Barry Moore 54.0% Everett Wess 33.0% R+21.0 R+18.6 R+2.4 lean removed Source
yes. every kid. foundation. Jul 8–Jul 11, 2026 601 lv Barry Moore 47.0% Everett Wess 32.0% R+15.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Alabama Senate Oct 1, 2026

RMG Research poll puts Moore up 21 in Alabama, in line with our forecast

The new survey lands almost exactly on our model's projected margin, and the race's outlook is unchanged from the morning run.

Republican Barry Moore leads Democrat Everett Wess 54% to 33% in an RMG Research survey of 800 registered voters, fielded September 21-25 and sponsored by Alabama Policy Action and Napolitan News Service. That 21-point gap sits close to what our model already expected for this open Senate...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Alabama Senate Aug 31, 2026

New Alabama Senate poll shows Moore up 15, and our forecast barely moves

A yes. every kid. foundation. survey has the Republican at 47 percent to the Democrat's 32; our model still gives Barry Moore a near-certain chance.

A survey from yes. every kid. foundation., fielded July 8-11 among 601 likely voters, puts Republican Barry Moore at 47 percent and Democrat Everett Wess at 32 percent in Alabama's open Senate race.

The poll changed almost nothing in our forecast. Our model now gives Moore a 100 in 100 chance,...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5