Alaska Senate

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 504 likely voters, fielded September 24 to October 1, has Democrat Mary Peltola at 50.07 percent and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 43.07 percent in the Alaska Senate race.

The poll moved our forecast by one point. Our model now gives Peltola a 26 in...

A Quantus Insights survey of 758 likely voters in Alaska, fielded September 28-30, found Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 46.5% and Democrat Mary Peltola at 46.2%. A gap of three-tenths of a point is no lead for either candidate. The poll shows a close race.

Our forecast did not move on the new...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters, fielded September 22-24, puts Democrat Mary Peltola at 45.5 percent in the Alaska Senate race. The Republican share in the results we received for this poll is incomplete and not a plausible figure. We are not reporting a head-to-head margin from...

Alaska Survey Research polled 1,352 likely voters from September 10 to 12 and released two sets of numbers. In the first, Mary Peltola takes 51.9 percent to Dan Sullivan's 48.1. In the second, drawn from the same sample, Peltola has 48.4 percent and Sullivan 3.7. The payload does not say what...

A co/efficient survey of 799 likely voters in Alaska, fielded September 14-17, puts Republican Dan Sullivan at 49 percent and Democrat Mary Peltola at 46 percent. The three-point gap is small enough, on that sample, to be consistent with either candidate ahead. The race is close in this...

A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll sponsored by AARP, of 800 likely voters fielded September 8-11, puts Democrat Mary Peltola at 53 percent and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 47 percent in the Alaska Senate race. That is a wider Peltola margin than the polls we have written about here in...

An Alaska Survey Research poll of 1,495 likely voters, fielded August 20-23, put Mary Peltola at 50.6 percent and Dan Sullivan at 49.4 percent. That 1.2-point gap is small enough to describe the race only as close.

Our forecast did not respond. It gives Peltola a 24 in 100 chance and Sullivan 76...

The most recent survey in our Alaska file is from Alaska Survey Research, fielded August 2-5 among 1,371 likely voters. It put Mary Peltola at 50.8% and Dan Sullivan at 49.2% — a gap well inside sampling error, and so a close race rather than a lead for either candidate. A New York Times/Siena...

Our model now gives Mary Peltola a 25 in 100 chance of winning the Alaska Senate race, down from 35% in our run of August 17. That is a drop of 10.1 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, all of it toward Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.

The estimated margin moved with it. Our...

A Data for Progress survey of 575 likely voters in Alaska, fielded July 28 to August 4, has Democrat Mary Peltola at 50 percent and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 45 percent.

Our forecast did not follow the poll. The model now gives Peltola a 29 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with Sullivan...

Two new surveys of the Alaska Senate race both show Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan. A Data for Progress poll of 605 likely voters, fielded July 28 to August 4, has Peltola at 47 percent and Sullivan at 41 percent. A second ballot test from the same Data for Progress survey of 605 likely...

Our model now gives Democrat Mary Peltola a 34 in 100 chance of winning the Alaska Senate race against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. That is up 10.8 points from the 23 percent estimate in our previous run, dated August 16 at 10:15 PM ET. The two runs are one day apart.

The expected margin...