Alaska Senate

Mary Peltola (Dem)
Dan Sullivan (Rep · incumbent)

Republicans are favored, winning in 68 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Rep

Win probability

R 68%

Estimated margin

R+3.1

5th–95th interval

R+14.2 to D+7.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.5

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Aug 2–Aug 5, 2026	1,371 lv	Mary Peltola 51.0% Dan Sullivan 49.0%	D+2.0	—	Source
Data for Progress	Jul 28–Aug 4, 2026	605 lv	Mary Peltola 53.0% Dan Sullivan 47.0%	D+6.0	D+5.8 D+0.2 lean removed	Source
Data for Progress	Jul 28–Aug 4, 2026	605 lv	Mary Peltola 47.0% Dan Sullivan 41.0%	D+6.0	D+5.8 D+0.2 lean removed	Source
New York Times/Siena University	Jun 15–Jun 29, 2026	593 lv	Dan Sullivan 47.0% Mary Peltola 45.0%	R+2.0	R+0.4 R+1.6 lean removed	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Jun 4–Jun 7, 2026	1,393 lv	Mary Peltola 49.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0%	D+5.0	—	Source
Alaska Survey Research	May 14–May 17, 2026	1,401 lv	Mary Peltola 48.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0%	D+4.0	—	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Apr 16–Apr 19, 2026	1,946 lv	Mary Peltola 50.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0%	D+6.0	—	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Apr 16–Apr 19, 2026	1,946 lv	Mary Peltola 49.0% Dan Sullivan 43.0%	D+6.0	—	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026	1,590 lv	Mary Peltola 52.0% Dan Sullivan 48.0%	D+4.0	—	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026	1,590 lv	Mary Peltola 50.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0%	D+6.0	—	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026	1,590 lv	Mary Peltola 49.0% Dan Sullivan 44.0%	D+5.0	—	Source
Public Policy Polling	Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026	611 unknown	Mary Peltola 49.0% Dan Sullivan 47.0%	D+2.0	D+2.2 R+0.2 lean removed	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026	1,988 lv	Mary Peltola 48.0% Dan Sullivan 46.0%	D+2.0	—	Source
Data for Progress	Oct 17–Oct 23, 2025	823 lv	Mary Peltola 46.0% Dan Sullivan 45.0%	D+1.0	D+0.8 D+0.2 lean removed	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Oct 10–Oct 15, 2025	1,708 lv	Mary Peltola 48.0% Dan Sullivan 46.0%	D+2.0	—	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Jul 29–Aug 1, 2025	1,623 lv	Dan Sullivan 47.0% Mary Peltola 42.0%	R+5.0	—	Source
Data for Progress	Jul 21–Jul 27, 2025	678 lv	Dan Sullivan 46.0% Mary Peltola 45.0%	R+1.0	R+1.2 D+0.2 lean removed	Source
Alaska Survey Research	Apr 21–Apr 25, 2023	1,261 lv	Mary Peltola 44.0% Dan Sullivan 41.0%	D+3.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Alaska Senate Aug 17, 2026

Peltola ahead in two Alaska polls; our model still leans to Sullivan

Two Data for Progress ballot tests put the Democrat up six, and our estimate of her chance of winning rose from 23 percent to 34 percent.

Two new surveys of the Alaska Senate race both show Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan. A Data for Progress poll of 605 likely voters, fielded July 28 to August 4, has Peltola at 47 percent and Sullivan at 41 percent. A second ballot test from the same Data for Progress survey of 605 likely...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note Alaska Senate Aug 17, 2026

Model moves Alaska Senate toward Peltola in a single overnight run

Our estimate of Mary Peltola's chance against Republican Dan Sullivan rose from 23 percent to 34 percent between Sunday night and Monday evening, with no new survey in the payload to explain it.

Our model now gives Democrat Mary Peltola a 34 in 100 chance of winning the Alaska Senate race against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. That is up 10.8 points from the 23 percent estimate in our previous run, dated August 16 at 10:15 PM ET. The two runs are one day apart.

The expected margin...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5