Kansas Senate
- Adam Hamilton (Dem)
- Roger Marshall (Rep · incumbent)
Republicans are favored, winning in 92 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 92%
Estimated margin
R+9.2
5th–95th interval
R+20.2 to D+1.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.5
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R) · 3 polls | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 7–Aug 8, 2026 | 569 lv | Roger Marshall 46.0% Adam Hamilton 45.0% | R+1.0 | R+0.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| GBAO | Jul 8–Jul 13, 2026 | 600 lv | Roger Marshall 47.0% Adam Hamilton 43.0% | R+4.0 | — | Source |
| Tavern Research | Jan 26–Jan 28, 2026 | 1,013 lv | Roger Marshall 54.0% Adam Hamilton 46.0% | R+8.0 | R+6.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Adam Hamilton (I) vs Roger Marshall (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research | Jan 26–Jan 28, 2026 | 1,013 lv | Ind 51.0% Roger Marshall 49.0% | — | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.