Texas Senate

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 615 likely voters, fielded September 21-30, has Democrat James Talarico at 50.8 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 45.09 percent in the race for the open Texas Senate seat. John Cornyn, the Republican incumbent, is not among the candidates.

The poll...

Our model now gives James Talarico, the Democrat, a 65 in 100 chance of winning the open Texas Senate seat against Ken Paxton, the Republican. In our run of September 26 at 6:32 AM ET, the figure was 56%. The change came over seven days.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model's mean...

A new Fox News survey of the Texas Senate race, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,203 registered voters and fielded September 24-28, finds Democrat James Talarico at 53% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46%.

That result moved our forecast. Our model now gives Talarico...

A Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research survey for Fox News, fielded September 24-28 among 881 likely voters, has James Talarico, the Democrat, at 51% and Ken Paxton, the Republican, at 49%. A two-point gap in a poll of that size is not a meaningful lead. The survey describes a close race.

Our...

A Pulse Decision Science survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 24-27, has Republican Ken Paxton at 48% and Democrat James Talarico at 45% in the Texas Senate race. A three-point gap in a single poll of that size is close, and the race should be read that way.

The poll did not move our...

A new Stratus Intelligence poll of the Texas Senate race finds Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 48% each. The survey of 865 likely voters was fielded September 22-24 and sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority.

The poll changed nothing in our forecast. Our model...

A new Big Data Poll survey for the Public Polling Project finds a close race for the open Texas Senate seat. Among 698 likely voters, fielded September 24-26, Democrat James Talarico had 46.8% and Republican Ken Paxton had 44.9%, with 8.3% choosing another option. Among the survey's broader...

A new Slingshot Strategies survey for Texas Public Opinion Research finds Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 44% in the Texas Senate race, with 3% choosing another option. The poll of 1,007 likely voters was fielded September 19-22.

The poll moved our forecast slightly....

Our model's estimate of the Democratic chance in the Texas Senate race fell from 70% on September 16 to 55% now, a move of 14.6 points toward the Republican over seven days. The open seat, held by Republican John Cornyn, is contested by Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Our mean...

A Marist University survey of 1,139 registered voters in Texas, fielded September 17-20, puts Republican Ken Paxton at 52 percent and Democrat James Talarico at 43 percent. That nine-point margin is well outside anything our recent run had been absorbing, and it moved the model.

Our forecast now...

A survey from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, fielded September 15-19 among 1,800 likely voters, puts Democrat James Talarico at 47 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 46 percent, with 3 percent for other candidates. A one-point gap on that sample is not a lead. The...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters in Texas, fielded September 15-17, put James Talarico at 46.4 percent and Ken Paxton at 45.2 percent, with 2.5 percent for other candidates. A gap of 1.2 points on that sample is too small to separate the two candidates; the poll describes a close...

Two new surveys of the Texas Senate race point the same direction with different force. A ReconMR/Siena Research Institute/Texas A&M Bush School poll of 614 likely voters, fielded September 8-11, had Democrat James Talarico at 49 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 43. An Emerson College survey...

Our forecast of the open Texas Senate race has moved about ten points toward the Democrat in a week. On September 9 the model gave James Talarico a 60 percent chance against Ken Paxton; as of the September 16 run it gives him a 70 in 100 chance. The shift is 9.7 points of Democratic win...

A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey for Telemundo, fielded September 8-10 among 625 likely voters, has Democrat James Talarico at 46 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 43 percent, with 3 percent for another candidate. The three-point gap on that sample size is too narrow to call a lead; the...

A SoCal Strategies survey of 649 likely voters in Texas, fielded September 12-13, put Democrat James Talarico at 50 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 45 percent. The poll, published at socalstrategies.substack.com, did not come with a stated margin of error in what we have, so the five-point...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Texas, fielded September 8-9, put Democrat James Talarico at 47.1% and Republican Ken Paxton at 45.6%, with 2.2% for other candidates. The gap is 1.5 points. That is a close race, not a lead.

Our model now gives Talarico a 67 in 100 chance of...

A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll of 895 likely voters in Texas, sponsored by AARP and fielded August 30 to September 1, put Democrat James Talarico at 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 44 percent. No margin of error accompanies the result in our data, so the four-point gap is best read...

A YouGov poll sponsored by Univision, fielded August 27 to September 4 among 1,000 registered voters, puts Democrat James Talarico at 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 43 percent in the open Texas Senate race.

Our model now gives Talarico a 68 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean...

A new Overton Insights survey of 1,167 likely voters in Texas, sponsored by the Texas Public Policy Foundation and fielded August 24-26, puts Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico level at 50 percent each.

Our model now gives Talarico a 64 in 100 chance of winning the open Texas...

The polling in the Texas Senate race has settled into a narrow band, and our forecast moved only slightly with it. Our model now gives James Talarico a 68 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, up from 66 percent in the run at 4:03 PM ET. Our mean margin is D+3.0, against D+2.7 before. The...

Our model now gives Democrat James Talarico a 66 in 100 chance of winning the open Texas Senate seat, up from 58% in our run of August 23. That is a move of 8.1 points of win probability toward the Democrat over seven days. Ken Paxton's estimated chance is 34%.

The underlying margin moved less....

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,000 likely voters, fielded August 21-24, puts Democrat James Talarico at 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 42 percent in the Texas Senate race. It is the only new poll in this run.

Our model now gives Talarico a 65 in 100 chance of winning the...

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey of 1,200 registered voters, fielded August 5-13, puts Democrat James Talarico at 42% and Republican Ken Paxton at 39%. The three-point gap is narrow enough that the poll is best read as a close race rather than a lead, and roughly a fifth of...