Louisiana Senate

Jamie Davis (Dem)
Julia Letlow (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans92%

Republicans are favored, winning 91,985 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,073 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+13.7

5th–95th interval

R+29.7 to D+2.3

Estimated margin

R+13.0

5th–95th interval

R+22.0 to R+4.0

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+4.7

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor	Sep 17–Sep 19, 2026	500 lv	Julia Letlow 48.0% Jamie Davis 44.0%	R+4.0	—	Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor	Jul 21–Jul 22, 2026	518 rv	Julia Letlow 41.0% Jamie Davis 37.0%	R+4.0	R+2.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Louisiana Senate Sep 24, 2026

Older Louisiana poll shows four-point race, forecast stays at 9 in 100

A Public Policy Polling survey fielded in late July lands well after the fact and leaves our Louisiana Senate margin at R+13.5.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 518 registered voters in Louisiana, fielded July 21-22, put Republican Julia Letlow at 41 percent and Democrat Jamie Davis at 37 percent. On a sample that size, a four-point gap is close, and the poll is best read as showing a race neither candidate had clearly...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Louisiana Senate Sep 23, 2026

Four-point Hart poll leaves our Louisiana Senate numbers unmoved

Julia Letlow leads Jamie Davis 48-44 in the only new survey, but our model still gives the Democrat a 9 in 100 chance.

A Hart Research Associates survey of 500 likely voters in Louisiana, fielded September 17-19, has Republican Julia Letlow at 48 percent and Democrat Jamie Davis at 44 percent. The gap is four points in a sample that size, close enough that the poll on its own does not establish who is ahead.

Our...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note Louisiana Senate Aug 17, 2026

Model cuts Democrat's Louisiana Senate chance to 2 in 100 overnight

The estimated Republican margin barely moved between runs; the spread of simulated outcomes around it tightened, and no new Louisiana polling arrived in between.

Our forecast of the Louisiana Senate race moved toward the Republican between runs a day apart. On August 16 at 10:15 PM ET, our model gave Democrat Jamie Davis a 10 percent chance. As of August 17 at 4:01 PM ET, it gives him a 2 in 100 chance, with Republican Julia Letlow at 98 percent. That is...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5