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535

Louisiana Senate

  • Jamie Davis (Dem)
  • Julia Letlow (Rep)

Republicans are favored, winning in 98 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Rep

Win probability

R 98%

Estimated margin

R+14.2

5th–95th interval

R+25.0 to R+3.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+3.8

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Public Policy Polling Jul 21–Jul 22, 2026 518 rv Julia Letlow 41.0% Jamie Davis 37.0% R+4.0 R+3.8 R+0.2 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Movement note Louisiana Senate Aug 17, 2026

Model cuts Democrat's Louisiana Senate chance to 2 in 100 overnight

The estimated Republican margin barely moved between runs; the spread of simulated outcomes around it tightened, and no new Louisiana polling arrived in between.

Our forecast of the Louisiana Senate race moved toward the Republican between runs a day apart. On August 16 at 10:15 PM ET, our model gave Democrat Jamie Davis a 10 percent chance. As of August 17 at 4:01 PM ET, it gives him a 2 in 100 chance, with Republican Julia Letlow at 98 percent. That is...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5