Georgia Senate

Jon Ossoff (Dem · incumbent)
Mike Collins (Rep)

Democrats are favored, winning in 85 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Dem

Win probability

D 85%

Estimated margin

D+7.0

5th–95th interval

R+4.2 to D+18.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+7.2

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
InsiderAdvantage	Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026	800 lv	Jon Ossoff 50.0% Mike Collins 43.0%	D+7.0	—	Source
Insider Advantage	Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026	800 lv	Jon Ossoff 50.0% Mike Collins 43.0%	D+7.0	—	Source
Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research	Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026	1,060 lv	Jon Ossoff 52.0% Mike Collins 43.0%	D+9.0	D+8.7 D+0.3 lean removed	Source
Wick	Jun 27–Jun 30, 2026	1,175 lv	Jon Ossoff 47.0% Mike Collins 43.0%	D+4.0	—	Source
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	Jun 23–Jun 27, 2026	1,002 rv	Jon Ossoff 56.0% Mike Collins 43.0%	D+13.0	D+12.4 D+0.6 lean removed	Source
Echelon Insights	Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026	407 lv	Jon Ossoff 51.0% Mike Collins 44.0%	D+7.0	D+7.4 R+0.4 lean removed	Source
Emerson College	Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026	1,000 lv	Jon Ossoff 48.0% Mike Collins 43.0%	D+5.0	D+3.9 D+1.1 lean removed	Source
Quantus Insights	Sep 9–Sep 12, 2025	624 rv	Jon Ossoff 38.0% Mike Collins 38.0%	Even	D+1.1 R+1.1 lean removed	Source
TIPP Insights	Jul 28–Aug 1, 2025	2,956 rv	Jon Ossoff 45.0% Mike Collins 44.0%	D+1.0	—	Source
Cygnal	May 15–May 17, 2025	800 lv	Jon Ossoff 46.0% Mike Collins 43.0%	D+3.0	D+3.4 R+0.4 lean removed	Source
Trafalgar Group	Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025	1,426 lv	Jon Ossoff 48.0% Mike Collins 43.0%	D+5.0	—	Source
WPA Intelligence	Jan 14–Jan 15, 2025	500 lv	Jon Ossoff 44.0% Mike Collins 34.0%	D+10.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Aug 18, 2026

Georgia forecast ticks up to 85% for Ossoff after latest poll is absorbed

An InsiderAdvantage survey showing Jon Ossoff at 50% and Mike Collins at 43% moved our margin estimate three-tenths of a point.

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 800 likely voters, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50% and Republican Mike Collins at 43%. That seven-point gap is close to where our average already had the race, and the update it produced was small.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 85 in...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Aug 18, 2026

Ossoff leads by 7 in new Georgia poll, and our forecast barely moves

An Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters has the Democratic incumbent at 50 percent to Mike Collins's 43, close to what our model already assumed.

An Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters in Georgia, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50 percent and Republican Mike Collins at 43 percent.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 83 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+6.5 and a 5th-to-95th...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5