Skip to content
535

Georgia Senate

  • Jon Ossoff (Dem · incumbent)
  • Mike Collins (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats94%

Democrats are favored, winning 93,818 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats94%

Democrats are favored, winning 93,849 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+8.5

5th–95th interval

R+0.6 to D+17.5

Estimated margin

D+8.5

5th–95th interval

R+0.6 to D+17.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+8.7 current average: D+8.6

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Jon Ossoff (D) vs Mike Collins (R) · 19 polls
InsiderAdvantage Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026 1,200 lv Jon Ossoff 50.0% Mike Collins 42.0% D+8.0 D+8.9 R+0.9 lean removed Source
Big Data Poll Sep 21–Sep 23, 2026 712 rv Jon Ossoff 51.0% Mike Collins 40.1% D+10.9 D+9.5 D+1.4 lean removed Source
Big Data Poll Sep 21–Sep 23, 2026 678 lv Jon Ossoff 55.4% Mike Collins 44.6% D+10.8 D+9.4 D+1.4 lean removed Source
YouGov Sep 15–Sep 18, 2026 3,416 rv Jon Ossoff 51.0% Mike Collins 41.0% D+10.0 D+9.8 D+0.2 lean removed Source
YouGov Sep 15–Sep 18, 2026 3,301 lv Jon Ossoff 52.0% Mike Collins 42.0% D+10.0 D+9.8 D+0.2 lean removed Source
YouGov Sep 15–Sep 18, 2026 3,071 lv Jon Ossoff 51.0% Mike Collins 43.0% D+8.0 D+7.8 D+0.2 lean removed Source
Quantus Insights Sep 14–Sep 16, 2026 645 lv Jon Ossoff 49.0% Mike Collins 44.9% D+4.1 D+5.2 R+1.1 lean removed Source
InsiderAdvantage Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026 800 lv Jon Ossoff 50.1% Mike Collins 42.6% D+7.5 D+8.4 R+0.9 lean removed Source
Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026 1,060 lv Jon Ossoff 52.0% Mike Collins 43.0% D+9.0 D+8.1 D+0.9 lean removed Source
Wick Jun 27–Jun 30, 2026 1,175 lv Jon Ossoff 46.7% Mike Collins 42.9% D+3.8 — Source
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Jun 23–Jun 27, 2026 1,002 rv Jon Ossoff 56.0% Mike Collins 43.0% D+13.0 D+12.2 D+0.8 lean removed Source
Echelon Insights Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026 407 lv Jon Ossoff 51.0% Mike Collins 44.0% D+7.0 D+7.4 R+0.4 lean removed Source
Emerson College Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026 1,000 lv Jon Ossoff 47.7% Mike Collins 43.3% D+4.4 D+3.7 D+0.7 lean removed Source
Quantus Insights Sep 9–Sep 12, 2025 624 rv Jon Ossoff 37.8% Mike Collins 37.7% D+0.1 D+1.2 R+1.1 lean removed Source
TIPP Insights rep sponsor Jul 28–Aug 1, 2025 2,956 rv Jon Ossoff 43.5% Mike Collins 40.6% D+2.9 D+3.8 R+0.9 lean removed Source
TIPP Insights rep sponsor Jul 28–Aug 1, 2025 2,395 lv Jon Ossoff 44.9% Mike Collins 44.1% D+0.8 D+1.7 R+0.9 lean removed Source
Cygnal Political May 15–May 17, 2025 800 rv Jon Ossoff 45.7% Mike Collins 43.3% D+2.4 D+2.5 R+0.1 lean removed Source
Trafalgar Group rep sponsor Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025 1,426 lv Jon Ossoff 47.5% Mike Collins 42.8% D+4.7 — Source
WPA Intelligence rep sponsor Jan 14–Jan 15, 2025 500 lv Jon Ossoff 44.0% Mike Collins 34.0% D+10.0 — Source
Allen Buckley (I) vs Jon Ossoff (D) vs Mike Collins (R) · 1 poll
Trafalgar Group rep sponsor Sep 10–Sep 12, 2026 1,091 lv Jon Ossoff 49.4% Mike Collins 42.8% Ind 1.3% D+6.6 — Source
Buddy Carter (R) vs Jon Ossoff (D) · 8 polls Polled before the field was set
Echelon Insights Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026 407 lv Jon Ossoff 52.0% Rep 43.0% D+9.0 D+9.4 R+0.4 lean removed Source
Emerson College Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026 1,000 lv Jon Ossoff 47.1% Rep 43.7% D+3.4 D+2.7 D+0.7 lean removed Source
Quantus Insights Sep 9–Sep 12, 2025 624 rv Jon Ossoff 40.2% Rep 37.1% D+3.1 D+4.2 R+1.1 lean removed Source
TIPP Insights rep sponsor Jul 28–Aug 1, 2025 2,956 rv Jon Ossoff 43.5% Rep 40.3% D+3.2 D+4.1 R+0.9 lean removed Source
TIPP Insights rep sponsor Jul 28–Aug 1, 2025 2,395 lv Jon Ossoff 45.1% Rep 43.4% D+1.7 D+2.6 R+0.9 lean removed Source
Cygnal Political May 15–May 17, 2025 800 rv Jon Ossoff 46.0% Rep 42.1% D+3.9 D+4.0 R+0.1 lean removed Source
The Tyson Group Jan 30–Jan 31, 2025 600 lv Jon Ossoff 47.0% Rep 39.0% D+8.0 — Source
WPA Intelligence rep sponsor Jan 14–Jan 15, 2025 500 lv Jon Ossoff 45.0% Rep 32.0% D+13.0 — Source
Derek Dooley (R) vs Jon Ossoff (D) · 4 polls Polled before the field was set
Emerson College Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026 1,000 lv Jon Ossoff 48.9% Rep 41.4% D+7.5 D+6.8 D+0.7 lean removed Source
Quantus Insights Sep 9–Sep 12, 2025 624 rv Jon Ossoff 42.1% Rep 35.4% D+6.7 D+7.8 R+1.1 lean removed Source
TIPP Insights rep sponsor Jul 28–Aug 1, 2025 2,956 rv Jon Ossoff 43.6% Rep 39.0% D+4.7 D+5.6 R+0.9 lean removed Source
TIPP Insights rep sponsor Jul 28–Aug 1, 2025 2,395 lv Jon Ossoff 45.2% Rep 42.0% D+3.2 D+4.1 R+0.9 lean removed Source
John King (R) vs Jon Ossoff (D) · 4 polls Polled before the field was set
Cygnal Political rep sponsor Jun 16–Jun 18, 2025 610 lv Jon Ossoff 49.8% Rep 40.0% D+9.8 D+9.9 R+0.1 lean removed Source
Cygnal Political May 15–May 17, 2025 800 rv Jon Ossoff 44.7% Rep 42.1% D+2.6 D+2.7 R+0.1 lean removed Source
University of Georgia Apr 15–Apr 24, 2025 1,000 rv Jon Ossoff 50.9% Rep 38.2% D+12.7 — Source
WPA Intelligence rep sponsor Jan 14–Jan 15, 2025 500 lv Jon Ossoff 47.0% Rep 31.0% D+16.0 — Source
Brad Raffensperger (R) vs Jon Ossoff (D) · 4 polls Polled before the field was set
Cygnal Political May 15–May 17, 2025 800 rv Rep 44.3% Jon Ossoff 44.1% R+0.2 R+0.1 R+0.1 lean removed Source
Trafalgar Group rep sponsor Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025 1,426 lv Jon Ossoff 46.4% Rep 37.5% D+8.9 — Source
University of Georgia Apr 15–Apr 24, 2025 1,000 rv Jon Ossoff 48.4% Rep 38.8% D+9.6 — Source
WPA Intelligence rep sponsor Jan 14–Jan 15, 2025 500 lv Jon Ossoff 46.0% Rep 32.0% D+14.0 — Source
Jon Ossoff (D) vs Kelly Loeffler (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Cygnal Political May 15–May 17, 2025 800 rv Jon Ossoff 46.3% Rep 42.8% D+3.5 D+3.6 R+0.1 lean removed Source
Jon Ossoff (D) vs Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) · 3 polls Polled before the field was set
Trafalgar Group rep sponsor Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025 1,426 lv Jon Ossoff 48.3% Rep 36.5% D+11.8 — Source
University of Georgia Apr 15–Apr 24, 2025 1,000 rv Jon Ossoff 54.2% Rep 37.3% D+16.9 — Source
The Tyson Group Jan 30–Jan 31, 2025 600 lv Jon Ossoff 51.0% Rep 39.0% D+12.0 — Source
Brian Kemp (R) vs Jon Ossoff (D) · 4 polls Polled before the field was set
University of Georgia Apr 15–Apr 24, 2025 1,000 rv Rep 49.0% Jon Ossoff 45.7% R+3.3 — Source
Quantus Insights rep sponsor Feb 11–Feb 13, 2025 800 rv Rep 48.3% Jon Ossoff 44.5% R+3.8 R+2.7 R+1.1 lean removed Source
The Tyson Group Jan 30–Jan 31, 2025 600 lv Rep 49.0% Jon Ossoff 42.0% R+7.0 — Source
WPA Intelligence rep sponsor Jan 14–Jan 15, 2025 500 lv Rep 46.0% Jon Ossoff 40.0% R+6.0 — Source
Jon Ossoff (D) vs Rich McCormick (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
WPA Intelligence rep sponsor Jan 14–Jan 15, 2025 500 lv Jon Ossoff 44.0% Rep 33.0% D+11.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Movement note Georgia Senate Sep 25, 2026

Our Georgia Senate number moves 8.7 points toward Ossoff over a week

Six poll samples from three firms, the latest an InsiderAdvantage survey showing an 8-point Ossoff lead, arrived as our estimate went from 84% to 93%.

Our model now gives Democrat Jon Ossoff a 93 in 100 chance of winning the Georgia Senate race against Republican Mike Collins. In our run of September 18, it put his chance at 84%. That is a move of 8.7 points of win probability toward the Democrat in 7 days.

The projected margin moved with it....

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Sep 25, 2026

InsiderAdvantage puts Ossoff up 8 in Georgia, and our forecast stays at 93%

The new survey lands almost exactly on our projected margin, so it confirms the Georgia picture rather than moving it, a day after our number last edged up.

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 50% and Republican Mike Collins at 42%. That is an 8-point lead for the incumbent.

The poll changed little in our forecast. Our model still gives Ossoff a 93 in 100 chance of winning,...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Sep 25, 2026

Two Big Data Poll samples put Ossoff up about 11, and our Georgia number edges to 93%

Likely- and registered-voter versions of the same survey agree on the margin, and our model's expected Ossoff margin moves from D+7.8 to D+8.5.

A Big Data Poll survey of 678 likely voters, fielded September 21-23, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 55.4% and Republican Mike Collins at 44.6%, a margin of 10.8 points. The same pollster's registered-voter sample of 712, fielded over the same dates, has Ossoff at 51.0% and Collins at 40.1%, a...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Sep 23, 2026

Three YouGov samples put Ossoff up 8 to 10, and our Georgia number rises to 91%

The forecast had already settled on a mid-single-digit Ossoff lead; the new numbers push our mean margin to D+7.8.

Three YouGov surveys of Georgia, all fielded September 15-18, put Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins. Among 3,071 likely voters, Ossoff led 51-43. Among a separate sample of 3,301 likely voters, he led 52-42. Among 3,416 registered voters, he led 51-41.

Our model now gives Ossoff a 91 in 100...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Sep 18, 2026

Ossoff leads Collins by 4 in Quantus poll; our Georgia number eases to 84%

The survey is the narrowest reading in our recent Georgia set, and it trimmed our mean margin by about half a point.

A Quantus Insights survey of 645 likely voters in Georgia, fielded September 14-16, has Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 49.0 percent and Republican Mike Collins at 44.9 percent. That is a 4.1-point edge for Ossoff, with Ossoff just short of a majority.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 84 in 100...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Sep 13, 2026

Trafalgar puts Ossoff up 6.6 in Georgia, in line with our average

Our model still gives Jon Ossoff an 84% chance against Mike Collins, with a mean margin of D+6.1, unchanged from the previous run.

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,091 likely voters in Georgia, fielded September 10-12, has Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 49.4% and Republican Mike Collins at 42.8%, with 1.3% for an independent. That is a margin of 6.6 points for Ossoff.

The poll sits close to where our model already had the...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Aug 31, 2026

Ossoff at 52 in July AARP poll as our Georgia forecast holds near 83%

A 1,060-voter survey fielded in mid-July is the most recent public number in the race, and our model moved by about a point after absorbing it.

The most recent public polling of the Georgia Senate race has Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins. A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research survey for AARP of 1,060 likely voters, fielded July 13-16, put Ossoff at 52 percent and Collins at 43. An Echelon Insights poll for NetChoice of 407 likely voters,...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Aug 18, 2026

Georgia forecast ticks up to 85% for Ossoff after latest poll is absorbed

An InsiderAdvantage survey showing Jon Ossoff at 50% and Mike Collins at 43% moved our margin estimate three-tenths of a point.

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 800 likely voters, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50% and Republican Mike Collins at 43%. That seven-point gap is close to where our average already had the race, and the update it produced was small.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 85 in...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Georgia Senate Aug 18, 2026

Ossoff leads by 7 in new Georgia poll, and our forecast barely moves

An Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters has the Democratic incumbent at 50 percent to Mike Collins's 43, close to what our model already assumed.

An Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters in Georgia, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50 percent and Republican Mike Collins at 43 percent.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 83 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+6.5 and a 5th-to-95th...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5