Skip to content
535

Florida Senate

Special election
  • Ashley Moody (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans80%

Republicans are favored, winning 80,115 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans80%

Republicans are favored, winning 80,115 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+4.6

5th–95th interval

R+13.7 to D+4.4

Estimated margin

R+4.6

5th–95th interval

R+13.7 to D+4.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+4.7 current average: R+4.7

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R) · 10 polls
Change Research Sep 25–Sep 27, 2026 1,063 lv Ashley Moody 48.0% Dem 47.0% R+1.0 R+1.5 D+0.5 lean removed Source
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research Sep 14–Sep 21, 2026 830 lv Ashley Moody 51.0% Dem 40.0% R+11.0 — Source
InsiderAdvantage Sep 20–Sep 21, 2026 600 lv Ashley Moody 49.0% Dem 42.0% R+7.0 R+6.1 R+0.9 lean removed Source
St. Pete Polls Sep 15–Sep 17, 2026 913 lv Ashley Moody 45.2% Dem 44.8% R+0.4 — Source
Quantus Insights Sep 8–Sep 10, 2026 733 lv Ashley Moody 50.4% Dem 43.0% R+7.4 R+6.3 R+1.1 lean removed Source
Change Research Sep 7–Sep 9, 2026 1,107 lv Dem 47.0% Ashley Moody 47.0% Even R+0.5 D+0.5 lean removed Source
University of North Florida Jul 8–Jul 17, 2026 848 lv Ashley Moody 50.0% Dem 41.6% R+8.4 — Source
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research Mar 25–Apr 13, 2026 414 lv Ashley Moody 51.0% Dem 38.0% R+13.0 — Source
Emerson College Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026 1,125 lv Ashley Moody 47.3% Dem 36.3% R+11.0 R+11.7 D+0.7 lean removed Source
University of North Florida Feb 21–Mar 2, 2026 768 lv Ashley Moody 46.0% Dem 38.0% R+8.0 — Source
Alexander Vindman (D) vs Ashley Moody (R) · 13 polls
University of North Florida Jul 8–Jul 17, 2026 848 lv Ashley Moody 49.9% Dem 40.2% R+9.7 — Source
Change Research Jun 11–Jun 14, 2026 1,273 rv Ashley Moody 46.0% Dem 42.0% R+4.0 R+4.5 D+0.5 lean removed Source
Change Research Jun 11–Jun 14, 2026 1,015 lv Dem 46.0% Ashley Moody 46.0% Even R+0.5 D+0.5 lean removed Source
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor May 18–May 21, 2026 1,000 lv Ashley Moody 46.0% Dem 43.0% R+3.0 — Source
Change Research May 13–May 16, 2026 1,593 lv Dem 47.0% Ashley Moody 45.0% D+2.0 D+1.5 D+0.5 lean removed Source
Change Research May 13–May 16, 2026 2,070 rv Ashley Moody 46.0% Dem 41.0% R+5.0 R+5.5 D+0.5 lean removed Source
Cherry Communications rep sponsor May 1–May 9, 2026 604 lv Ashley Moody 48.0% Dem 40.0% R+8.0 — Source
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research Mar 25–Apr 13, 2026 434 lv Ashley Moody 49.0% Dem 42.0% R+7.0 — Source
Echelon Insights Apr 3–Apr 9, 2026 406 lv Ashley Moody 50.0% Dem 43.0% R+7.0 R+6.6 R+0.4 lean removed Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Apr 2–Apr 3, 2026 574 rv Ashley Moody 43.0% Dem 40.0% R+3.0 R+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
MDW Communications Mar 27–Apr 3, 2026 1,834 lv Ashley Moody 43.4% Dem 42.2% R+1.2 — Source
Emerson College Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026 1,125 lv Ashley Moody 45.9% Dem 38.0% R+7.9 R+8.6 D+0.7 lean removed Source
University of North Florida Feb 21–Mar 2, 2026 772 lv Ashley Moody 45.0% Dem 38.0% R+7.0 — Source
Ashley Moody (R) vs Hector Mujica (D) · 1 poll
Emerson College Mar 29–Mar 31, 2026 1,125 lv Ashley Moody 45.3% Dem 37.6% R+7.7 R+8.4 D+0.7 lean removed Source
Ashley Moody (R) vs Jennifer Jenkins (D) · 2 polls
University of North Florida dem sponsor Oct 15–Oct 25, 2025 728 lv Ashley Moody 49.0% Dem 38.0% R+11.0 — Source
The Tyson Group Oct 1–Oct 3, 2025 800 lv Ashley Moody 44.0% Dem 37.0% R+7.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Florida Senate Sep 28, 2026

Change Research finds Florida Senate race within a point as our model edges to 21 in 100

A one-point Moody edge in a sponsored poll nudges our Florida special election forecast slightly toward Democrats but leaves Moody favored.

A new Change Research survey of 1,063 likely voters, fielded September 25-27 and sponsored by Freedom Project USA, finds the Florida Senate special election close. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody takes 48 percent to 47 percent for the Democrat. A one-point gap is not a lead in a poll of this kind....

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Movement note Florida Senate Sep 24, 2026

Florida Senate moves 11 points toward Moody in a week in our model

A Stetson University survey with Ashley Moody at 51 percent is the newest poll in our average; the Democrat's chance is now 18 in 100.

Our model now gives the Democrat an 18 in 100 chance in the Florida Senate special election, down from 29 percent in our run of September 17. That is a move of 11 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, toward Republican Ashley Moody, the incumbent.

The mean margin in our...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Florida Senate Sep 21, 2026

InsiderAdvantage puts Moody up 7 in Florida as our model slips to 30 in 100

The new survey moves our Democratic win estimate down six points from the run two hours earlier, with a mean margin of R+3.1.

A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 600 likely voters in Florida, fielded September 20-21, has Republican Ashley Moody at 49 percent and the Democrat at 42 percent in the state's special Senate election.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 30 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 36 percent...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Florida Senate Sep 18, 2026

St. Pete Polls finds Florida Senate race within a point as our model moves to 37 in 100

The new survey shows Ashley Moody at 45.2 percent and the Democrat at 44.8 percent, and our forecast now has the mean margin at R+1.9.

A St. Pete Polls survey of 913 likely voters in Florida, sponsored by Florida Politics and fielded September 15-17, put Republican incumbent Ashley Moody at 45.2 percent and the Democrat at 44.8 percent. That is a four-tenths-of-a-point gap. The race is close in this poll; neither candidate is...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Florida Senate Sep 11, 2026

Quantus poll puts Moody up 7 in Florida as our model eases to 30 in 100 for Democrats

The new survey is the widest Republican margin in our recent Florida numbers, and our simulated range around the race has narrowed sharply.

A Quantus Insights survey of 733 likely voters in Florida, fielded September 8-10, puts Republican Ashley Moody at 50.4 percent and the Democrat at 43.0 percent in the state's special Senate election. That is a Moody lead of 7.4 points, wider than the sampling error on a survey of that size would...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Florida Senate Sep 10, 2026

Change Research poll shows Florida Senate race tied at 47 as our forecast holds

The tie moved our model by a single point, to a 34 in 100 chance for the Democrat against appointed Republican Ashley Moody.

A Change Research survey of 1,107 likely voters in Florida, fielded September 7-9 and sponsored by Freedom Project USA, has the Senate special election tied: 47% for Republican Ashley Moody, 47% for the Democrat.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 34 in 100 chance in Florida, with a mean margin...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Florida Senate Aug 31, 2026

Moody at 50 in latest Florida polling as our model holds at 34 in 100 for Democrats

Two University of North Florida matchups from July put the Republican incumbent just at or below the halfway mark, and our forecast barely moved.

The most recent numbers in the Florida Senate special election come from the University of North Florida, which surveyed 848 likely voters July 8-17 and tested more than one matchup. In one, Republican Ashley Moody led an unnamed Democrat 50.0 percent to 41.6 percent. In the other, Moody led 49.9...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5