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535

Nebraska Senate

  • Pete Ricketts (Rep · incumbent)
  • Dan Osborn (Ind)

Favors Rep

Republicans93%

Republicans are favored, winning 93,295 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans93%

Republicans are favored, winning 93,295 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+14.6

5th–95th interval

R+30.7 to I+1.4

Estimated margin

R+14.6

5th–95th interval

R+30.7 to I+1.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Other win probability Tossup band

Polls

No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Nebraska Senate Oct 2, 2026

New co/efficient Nebraska poll finds a close race; our Ricketts forecast holds at 93%

A survey of 1,113 likely voters puts Pete Ricketts three to four points ahead on two ballot questions, well short of the margin our model expects, and our forecast did not move.

A co/efficient survey of 1,113 likely voters, fielded September 28-30, finds the Nebraska Senate race close. On one ballot question it has Republican Pete Ricketts at 47% and a candidate listed as a Democrat at 44%. On a second question from the same survey it has Ricketts at 44%, the...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Nebraska Senate Sep 28, 2026

Two older sponsored Nebraska polls show a close race; our Ricketts estimate edges to 93%

The GBAO surveys, fielded in April and July for a PAC, were added to our average and moved the forecast by one point, within the range we already had.

Two GBAO polls sponsored by Working Class Majority PAC entered our Nebraska Senate average today. Both are months old. Our model moved slightly after they were added and now gives Pete Ricketts, the Republican incumbent, a 93 in 100 chance of winning. That is up from 92% in our run earlier...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Nebraska Senate Sep 25, 2026

Sponsored Nebraska poll finds a one-point race; our Ricketts forecast stays at 92%

A GBAO survey for Working Class Majority PAC, fielded in early September, did not move our model's estimate of Pete Ricketts's chances.

A GBAO survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 3-8 for Working Class Majority PAC, puts Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts at 46%. His opponent is at 47%. The poll's release records that 47% under a Democratic label. The only other candidate in our race listing is Dan Osborn, an independent. A...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Nebraska Senate Sep 16, 2026

Ricketts leads by four in new Nebraska poll; our forecast is unchanged

Wedgewood Polls has the incumbent at 52 percent, closer than our model's mean margin, and our estimate of his chances stayed at 93 percent.

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 500 likely voters in Nebraska, fielded September 14-16, put Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts at 52 percent against a Democratic option at 48 percent. The poll did not report a figure for independent Dan Osborn, who is the other candidate on our list for this race, so the...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Nebraska Senate Sep 14, 2026

Nebraska poll puts Ricketts behind by four; our forecast barely moves

A new SurveyUSA survey is the third straight to show a close race, and our model still gives the Republican a 93 percent chance.

A SurveyUSA poll of 503 likely voters in Nebraska, sponsored by Grant Forbes, LLC and fielded September 8-13, records Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts at 42 percent and a non-Republican line, labeled Democrat in the released results, at 46 percent. The candidate field in this race, as our model...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Nebraska Senate Aug 31, 2026

Nebraska race tied in new poll; our model widens its range around Ricketts

Impact Research finds an even split, and our forecast now gives a non-Democratic challenger a 7 percent chance while its mean margin moves further toward the incumbent.

A new Nebraska Senate poll from Impact Research, fielded August 9-13 among 600 likely voters and reported by omaha.com, put Republican Pete Ricketts at 47 percent and the non-Republican line at 47 percent. The race is even in that survey.

Our model gives Ricketts a 93 in 100 chance of winning...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Nebraska Senate Aug 26, 2026

Nebraska poll shows Ricketts and Osborn tied; our model still favors Ricketts

An Impact Research survey has the race even at 47, and our forecast narrowed the expected margin to R+13.4 while keeping Ricketts at 98%.

An Impact Research survey of 600 likely voters in Nebraska, fielded August 9-13, put Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn level at 47 percent each.

Our model moved, but not far. The new run gives Ricketts a 98 percent chance of winning the seat, down from 99 percent in the...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5