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535

Montana Senate

  • Alani Bankhead (Dem)
  • Kurt Alme (Rep)
  • Seth Bodnar (Ind)

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,442 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,777 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+14.0

5th–95th interval

R+23.0 to R+4.9

Estimated margin

R+15.7

5th–95th interval

R+24.6 to R+6.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+17.2 current average: R+19.2

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) vs Kyle Austin (LIB) vs Seth Bodnar (I) · 8 polls
American Pulse Research & Polling Sep 19–Sep 24, 2026 604 lv Kurt Alme 45.1% Seth Bodnar 26.1% Alani Bankhead 18.9% Other 2.7% R+26.2 — Source
Aspect Strategic ind sponsor Sep 7–Sep 15, 2026 715 lv Kurt Alme 44.0% Seth Bodnar 32.0% Alani Bankhead 14.0% Other 3.0% R+30.0 — Source
Rutgers-Eagleton Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026 845 rv Kurt Alme 38.0% Seth Bodnar 30.0% Alani Bankhead 16.0% Other 5.0% R+22.0 — Source
Peak Insights rep sponsor Aug 23–Aug 25, 2026 600 lv Kurt Alme 44.0% Seth Bodnar 22.0% Alani Bankhead 19.0% Other 2.0% R+25.0 — Source
Hart Research Associates ind sponsor Aug 1–Aug 4, 2026 800 lv Kurt Alme 45.0% Seth Bodnar 30.0% Alani Bankhead 15.0% Other 6.0% R+30.0 — Source
GQR ind sponsor Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 500 lv Kurt Alme 41.0% Seth Bodnar 27.0% Alani Bankhead 22.0% Other 6.0% R+19.0 — Source
GrayHouse Jun 23–Jun 24, 2026 500 lv Kurt Alme 41.0% Alani Bankhead 25.0% Seth Bodnar 17.0% Other 4.0% R+16.0 — Source
Public Opinion Strategies rep sponsor Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026 500 lv Kurt Alme 44.0% Alani Bankhead 25.0% Seth Bodnar 20.0% Other 4.0% R+19.0 — Source
Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) vs Seth Bodnar (I) · 3 polls
Quantus Insights Sep 14–Sep 15, 2026 625 lv Seth Bodnar 26.1% Kurt Alme 25.3% Alani Bankhead 24.5% R+0.8 D+0.3 R+1.1 lean removed Source
The Bullfinch Group Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026 793 lv Kurt Alme 36.0% Seth Bodnar 24.0% Alani Bankhead 22.0% R+14.0 R+15.1 D+1.1 lean removed Source
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor Jun 18–Jun 24, 2026 800 lv Kurt Alme 47.0% Seth Bodnar 25.0% Alani Bankhead 22.0% R+25.0 — Source
Kurt Alme (R) vs Seth Bodnar (I) · 5 polls
Hart Research Associates ind sponsor Aug 1–Aug 4, 2026 800 lv Kurt Alme 46.0% Seth Bodnar 46.0% — — Source
GQR ind sponsor Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 500 lv Seth Bodnar 50.0% Kurt Alme 44.0% — — Source
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor Jun 18–Jun 24, 2026 800 lv Kurt Alme 47.0% Seth Bodnar 45.0% — — Source
Tavern Research ind sponsor May 13–May 18, 2026 607 lv Seth Bodnar 50.0% Kurt Alme 50.0% — — Source
Change Research ind sponsor Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026 616 lv Kurt Alme 36.8% Seth Bodnar 35.1% — — Source
Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) · 3 polls
Hart Research Associates ind sponsor Aug 1–Aug 4, 2026 800 lv Kurt Alme 52.0% Alani Bankhead 38.0% R+14.0 — Source
GQR ind sponsor Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 500 lv Kurt Alme 52.0% Alani Bankhead 44.0% R+8.0 — Source
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor Jun 18–Jun 24, 2026 800 lv Kurt Alme 49.0% Alani Bankhead 43.0% R+6.0 — Source
Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) vs Kyle Austin (LIB) · 1 poll
GQR ind sponsor Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 500 lv Kurt Alme 44.0% Alani Bankhead 40.0% Other 13.0% R+4.0 — Source
Kurt Alme (R) vs Kyle Austin (LIB) vs Seth Bodnar (I) · 1 poll
GQR ind sponsor Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 500 lv Seth Bodnar 44.0% Kurt Alme 40.0% Other 11.0% — — Source
Kurt Alme (R) vs Reilly Neill (D) vs Seth Bodnar (I) vs Tom Jandron (LIB) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Tavern Research ind sponsor May 13–May 18, 2026 607 lv Kurt Alme 46.0% Seth Bodnar 26.0% Dem 24.0% Other 3.0% R+22.0 — Source
Kurt Alme (R) vs Reilly Neill (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Tavern Research ind sponsor May 13–May 18, 2026 607 lv Kurt Alme 58.0% Dem 42.0% R+16.0 — Source
Reilly Neill (D) vs Seth Bodnar (I) vs Steve Daines (R) · 2 polls Polled before the field was set
American Pulse Research & Polling Feb 14–Feb 18, 2026 607 lv Rep 51.7% Dem 25.1% Seth Bodnar 15.9% R+26.6 — Source
yes. every kid. foundation. Jan 23–Jan 26, 2026 500 rv Rep 43.0% Dem 19.0% Seth Bodnar 15.0% R+24.0 — Source
Seth Bodnar (I) vs Steve Daines (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
American Pulse Research & Polling Feb 14–Feb 18, 2026 607 lv Rep 50.6% Seth Bodnar 41.6% — — Source
Reilly Neill (I) vs Steve Daines (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
American Pulse Research & Polling Feb 14–Feb 18, 2026 607 lv Rep 55.7% Ind 37.0% — — Source
Seth Bodnar (D) vs Steve Daines (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
American Pulse Research & Polling Feb 14–Feb 18, 2026 607 lv Rep 53.9% Dem 40.0% R+13.9 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Montana Senate Sep 28, 2026

Alme leads by 19 in new Montana poll as our projected margin widens to R+14.8

The American Pulse survey puts independent Seth Bodnar second and Democrat Alani Bankhead third, and our model's Democratic chance falls from 3% to 0%.

Republican Kurt Alme leads the open Montana Senate race by 19 points in a new American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 604 likely voters, fielded September 19-24 for NonStop Local. Alme has 45.1%, independent Seth Bodnar 26.1% and Democrat Alani Bankhead 18.9%. Other candidates take 2.7%.

The...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Montana Senate Sep 24, 2026

Alme leads by 12 in new Montana poll; our forecast holds at R+11

An Aspect Strategic survey puts the Republican at 44% against an independent at 32%, and our model still gives the Democrat a 3 in 100 chance.

A new poll of Montana's open Senate race shows Republican Kurt Alme ahead. Aspect Strategic, polling for Montana Freedom PAC, surveyed 715 likely voters from September 7 to 15 and found Alme at 44%, independent Seth Bodnar at 32%, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 14%, and 3% for others. No margin of...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Montana Senate Sep 17, 2026

Three-way Montana tie in new poll narrows our projected margin to R+11

Quantus Insights finds Bodnar, Alme and Bankhead within 1.6 points; our model still gives the Democrat a 3 in 100 chance.

A Quantus Insights survey of 625 likely voters in Montana, fielded September 14-15, found the three-way field bunched together: independent Seth Bodnar at 26.1 percent, Republican Kurt Alme at 25.3 percent and Democrat Alani Bankhead at 24.5 percent. The gap between first and third is 1.6 points....

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Montana Senate Sep 12, 2026

Montana margin widens in our forecast after new Rutgers-Eagleton poll

Kurt Alme leads Seth Bodnar by eight points among registered voters, and our model now puts the expected Republican margin at nearly 16 points.

A Rutgers-Eagleton survey of 845 registered voters, sponsored by Montana Free Press and fielded August 27 to September 7, has Republican Kurt Alme at 38 percent, independent Seth Bodnar at 30 percent, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 16 percent and other candidates at 5 percent.

Our model now gives...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Montana Senate Sep 8, 2026

Montana forecast unchanged as new poll keeps Alme in the lead

A Peak Insights survey puts the Republican at 44 percent, with independent Seth Bodnar running ahead of the Democrat, and our model has not moved.

A Peak Insights survey of 600 likely voters in Montana, fielded August 23-25, puts Republican Kurt Alme at 44 percent, independent Seth Bodnar at 22 percent, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 19 percent and other candidates at 2 percent.

Our forecast is where it was. The model gives the Republican a 99...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Montana Senate Aug 31, 2026

New Montana poll shows Alme ahead in a three-way field, forecast unmoved

Hart Research's August survey has the Republican at 45 percent with the independent second; our model still gives the Democrat a 2 percent chance.

A Hart Research Associates survey of 800 likely voters for Forward Montana, fielded August 1-4, put Republican Kurt Alme at 45 percent in the three-way race for Montana's open Senate seat, independent Seth Bodnar at 30 percent, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 15 percent and other candidates at 6...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5