Iowa Senate

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 606 likely voters in Iowa, fielded September 22 to October 1, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 47.8% and Democrat Josh Turek at 47.0%. A gap of under one point in a poll of that size is not a lead. The race is close.

Our model now gives Turek a 58 in...

Our model now gives Democrat Josh Turek a 61 in 100 chance of winning the open Iowa Senate seat, up from 58% in the run at 8:32 AM ET on October 2. Republican Ashley Hinson's chance moved from 42% to 39%. The incumbent in the seat is Republican Joni Ernst.

The poll in this update is a Beacon...

A Fox News survey by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, fielded September 24-28 among 1,008 likely voters, has Democrat Josh Turek at 49% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 47% in Iowa's open Senate race. That two-point gap is small enough that the race is best described as close.

The...

A new Quantus Insights survey of 738 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, finds the Iowa Senate race close. In a head-to-head question, Republican Ashley Hinson takes 51.2% to 48.8% for Democrat Josh Turek. In a version of the question that included other candidates, the same survey puts...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, finds the Iowa Senate race close. It puts Democrat Josh Turek at 47.4% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 45.7%, with 1.6% choosing another option. That 1.7-point gap is small enough that we treat the race as close.

The...

Our model now gives Democrat Josh Turek a 56 in 100 chance of winning Iowa's open Senate seat, up from 45% in our run of September 15. That is a move of 10.4 points of Democratic win probability over seven days. Republican Ashley Hinson is at 44%.

The mean margin moved with it, from R+0.7 in the...

A Marist University survey of 1,050 registered voters in Iowa, fielded September 17-20, has Democrat Josh Turek at 50 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 42 percent. That is the widest margin in the polling our model has seen in this race in recent weeks, and it arrived after a run of surveys...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,089 likely voters in Iowa, fielded September 16-18, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 44.0 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 42.1 percent, with 3.4 percent for other candidates. The gap is under two points, which is another way of saying the poll found a close race...

A co/efficient survey of 831 likely voters in Iowa, fielded September 14-16, has Republican Ashley Hinson at 46 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 42 percent, with 2 percent for another candidate. The payload gives no margin of error for the poll, and a four-point gap in a sample that size is the...

A Cygnal Political survey of 500 likely voters in Iowa, sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation and fielded September 9-11, put Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson level at 42.9 percent each, with 3.6 percent for other candidates. That is a tie, and it is the only new...

Our forecast of the Iowa Senate race has moved toward the Democrat, Josh Turek. On September 7 our model gave him a 33% chance against Republican Ashley Hinson. As of the run dated September 14 at 12:32 AM ET, it gives him a 46 in 100 chance. That is a shift of 12.7 points of win probability over...

Two YouGov surveys of Iowa likely voters, both fielded September 3-8, have Democrat Josh Turek a few points ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson. One, of 2,041 likely voters, put Turek at 47 percent and Hinson at 43. The other, of 2,127 likely voters, had Turek at 45 and Hinson at 43 — a gap small...

A YouGov survey of 2,166 registered voters in Iowa, fielded September 3-8, put Democrat Josh Turek at 44 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 43 percent. That one-point gap is not a lead in any meaningful sense; the poll describes a close race for the open seat held by Republican Joni...

A Global Strategy Group survey of 800 likely voters in Iowa, fielded August 27-31, puts Democrat Josh Turek at 46 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 42 percent, with 6 percent for other candidates. No margin of error is reported in what we have, so we treat the four-point gap as a close race...

Our model now gives Josh Turek, the Democrat, a 35 in 100 chance of winning Iowa's open Senate seat, down from 66% in our August 30 run. That is a shift of 31 points toward the Republican, Ashley Hinson, over seven days.

The mean margin moved with it. Our August 30 run had the race at D+2.6 on...

An Emerson College survey for Nexstar, of 750 likely voters fielded August 31 to September 1, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 49.5 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 45.1 percent in Iowa's open Senate race. Less than a point went to other candidates.

Our forecast now gives Turek a 38 in 100...

The most recent survey of the Iowa Senate race, from Wedgewood Polls, put Republican Ashley Hinson at 50 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 48 percent among 600 likely voters fielded August 27-29. That is a close race.

Our forecast now gives Hinson a 59 percent chance of winning the open seat...

An Abacus Data survey of 2,500 likely voters, fielded August 29, has Democrat Josh Turek at 54 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 45 percent in Iowa's open Senate race.

That is the largest lead either candidate has held in the polling our model has taken in for this race, and it moved the...

Our model gave Democrat Josh Turek a 23 percent chance in Iowa's open Senate race in its August 23 run. As of Sunday night it gives him a 65 in 100 chance against Republican Ashley Hinson, a shift of 41.5 points toward the Democrat over seven days. The projected margin moved with it, from R+4.8...

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 600 likely voters, fielded August 27-29, put Republican Ashley Hinson at 50 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 48 percent in Iowa's open Senate race. A two-point gap on that sample size is not a measurable lead. The poll describes a close race and nothing more precise...

A Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters in Iowa, fielded August 20-23, put Republican Ashley Hinson at 45 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 41 percent. That is a four-point gap on a sample of that size, which is close enough that the poll does not establish who is ahead. Roughly one in...