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535

Michigan Senate

  • Abdul El-Sayed (Dem)
  • Mike Rogers (Rep)

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 58 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT

Rating

Tossup

Win probability

D 58%

Estimated margin

D+1.4

5th–95th interval

R+9.6 to D+12.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.3

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Susquehanna Polling & Research Aug 11–Aug 17, 2026 800 lv Abdul El-Sayed 46.0% Mike Rogers 39.0% D+7.0 — Source
TIPP Insights Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026 1,215 lv Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% Mike Rogers 42.0% D+3.0 — Source
TIPP Insights Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026 1,528 rv Abdul El-Sayed 43.0% Mike Rogers 39.0% D+4.0 — Source
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026 1,006 rv Mike Rogers 51.0% Abdul El-Sayed 47.0% R+4.0 R+4.6 D+0.6 lean removed Source
GBAO Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026 800 lv Abdul El-Sayed 50.0% Mike Rogers 44.0% D+6.0 — Source
EPIC-MRA Jul 24–Jul 31, 2026 600 lv Mike Rogers 46.0% Abdul El-Sayed 43.0% R+3.0 — Source
SoCal Strategies Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026 640 lv Mike Rogers 42.0% Abdul El-Sayed 41.0% R+1.0 R+0.5 R+0.5 lean removed Source
Mitchell Research & Communications Jul 28–Jul 29, 2026 672 lv Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% Mike Rogers 45.0% Even — Source
Glengariff Group Jul 22–Jul 24, 2026 600 lv Mike Rogers 49.0% Abdul El-Sayed 39.0% R+10.0 — Source
Quantus Insights Jun 29–Jun 30, 2026 947 lv Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% Mike Rogers 44.0% D+1.0 D+2.1 R+1.1 lean removed Source
Data for Progress Jun 15–Jun 22, 2026 709 lv Abdul El-Sayed 47.0% Mike Rogers 46.0% D+1.0 D+0.8 D+0.2 lean removed Source
Zenith Research Jun 11–Jun 14, 2026 602 lv Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% Mike Rogers 42.0% D+3.0 — Source
Mitchell Research & Communications Jun 11–Jun 13, 2026 827 lv Abdul El-Sayed 47.0% Mike Rogers 42.0% D+5.0 — Source
Tulchin Research Jun 2–Jun 4, 2026 500 lv Abdul El-Sayed 46.0% Mike Rogers 41.0% D+5.0 D+5.0 Even lean removed Source
TIPP Insights May 20–May 23, 2026 1,163 lv Abdul El-Sayed 43.0% Mike Rogers 42.0% D+1.0 — Source
TIPP Insights May 20–May 23, 2026 1,456 rv Abdul El-Sayed 40.0% Mike Rogers 40.0% Even — Source
Mitchell Research May 1–May 7, 2026 607 lv Mike Rogers 42.0% Abdul El-Sayed 41.0% R+1.0 — Source
Glengariff Group Apr 28–May 1, 2026 600 lv Mike Rogers 45.0% Abdul El-Sayed 42.0% R+3.0 — Source
Glengariff Group Apr 28–May 1, 2026 600 lv Mike Rogers 45.0% Abdul El-Sayed 40.0% R+5.0 — Source
Emerson College Jan 24–Jan 25, 2026 1,000 lv Abdul El-Sayed 43.0% Mike Rogers 43.0% Even R+1.1 D+1.1 lean removed Source
Glengariff Group Jan 2–Jan 6, 2026 600 lv Mike Rogers 48.0% Abdul El-Sayed 42.0% R+6.0 — Source
Glengariff Group Jan 2–Jan 6, 2026 600 lv Abdul El-Sayed 47.0% Mike Rogers 43.0% D+4.0 — Source
Mitchell Research & Communications Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025 616 lv Mike Rogers 41.0% Abdul El-Sayed 38.0% R+3.0 — Source
Rosetta Stone Communications Oct 23–Oct 25, 2025 637 lv Mike Rogers 45.0% Abdul El-Sayed 31.0% R+14.0 — Source
Glengariff Group May 5–May 8, 2025 600 rv Mike Rogers 47.0% Abdul El-Sayed 45.0% R+2.0 — Source
Glengariff Group May 5–May 8, 2025 600 rv Mike Rogers 47.0% Abdul El-Sayed 41.0% R+6.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Movement note Michigan Senate Aug 19, 2026

Michigan Senate forecast moves 16 points toward El-Sayed in three days

Our estimate went from 43% to 58% for the Democrat after a Susquehanna poll finished fielding on August 17.

Our model now gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance of winning Michigan's open Senate seat, against 42% for Republican Mike Rogers. Three days ago, in our run of August 16 at 10:15 PM ET, the same estimate was 43%. That is a shift of 15.7 points of Democratic win probability over three...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Michigan Senate Aug 19, 2026

Susquehanna poll of Michigan Senate race moves our forecast off a coin flip

El-Sayed leads Rogers by seven in the new survey, and our model now gives the Democrat a 58 percent chance in the open seat.

A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 11-17, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39 percent.

That is the only new number in the race, and it moved our forecast. Our model now gives El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Michigan Senate Aug 19, 2026

Two TIPP polls in Michigan move our Senate forecast to a coin flip

Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers narrowly in both samples, and our model now gives the Democrat a 49 percent chance in the open seat.

Two new surveys of the Michigan Senate race, both from TIPP Insights and both fielded August 6-10, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. Among 1,528 registered voters, El-Sayed took 43 percent to Rogers' 39 percent. Among 1,215 likely voters, the split was 45...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5