Michigan Senate

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,085 likely voters, fielded September 28-30, finds the open Michigan Senate race close. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, is at 46.9 percent and Mike Rogers, the Republican, is at 45.1 percent in that poll, a gap of 1.8 points.

Our model now gives El-Sayed a 76 in 100...

A new Fox News poll of the open Michigan Senate seat finds a close race. The survey, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research and fielded September 24-28, shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 50 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 49 percent among 1,028 likely voters. Among the...

Our model's estimate of the Michigan Senate race has moved 8.6 points of Democratic win probability in seven days. In the run of September 23 at 6:32 AM ET, it gave Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 71% chance against Republican Mike Rogers. It now gives him a 79 in 100 chance, with Rogers at 21%.

Our...

A Marist University survey of 1,235 registered voters, fielded September 24-27, finds Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 54 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 42 percent in the Michigan Senate race. That 12-point gap is wider than anything in the polls this site has covered here over the past...

A Cygnal/Beacon Research survey of 600 likely voters, fielded September 18-21 and sponsored by Michigan Enjoyer, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 45 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 40 percent in the open Michigan Senate race. The seat is held by Democrat Gary Peters. With a single sample of...

A GBAO survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 19-22 and sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44 percent in the race for Michigan's open Senate seat, now held by Democrat Gary Peters. Four points in a single poll of that...

A new Big Data Poll survey for the Public Polling Project, fielded September 22-24, finds the Michigan Senate race close. Among 678 likely voters, it has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.7 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 42.1 percent. Among 725 registered voters in the same survey, it has...

A Torchlight Strategies survey of 643 likely voters, fielded September 15-19 and sponsored by Common Sense for America PAC, finds the Michigan Senate race close. It puts Republican Mike Rogers at 44.4 percent and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 43.1 percent. The gap is small, and the poll does not...

Two new releases in the Michigan Senate race come from the same field period and the same pollster. A Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov survey of 913 registered voters, fielded August 10-20, had Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48 percent and Republican...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 605 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 15-22, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 49.5 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44.5 percent, a margin of about five points.

Our model gives El-Sayed a 70 in 100 chance of winning the seat, unchanged...

A co/efficient survey of 843 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 21-23, has the open Senate race tied, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers each at 50 percent. A second version of the same question from the same sample, offering another option, puts both candidates at...

A Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 16-20, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.8 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39.6 percent, with 0.6 percent for another candidate. That is a 7.2-point margin, wider than the results that led our recent write-ups...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 16-17, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.6 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44.7 percent, with 1.1 percent for other candidates. That gap is narrow enough that the race is best described as close rather than as...

Two surveys of the open Michigan Senate race, both finishing on September 14, found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. A Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School poll of 803 likely voters, fielded September 10-14, had El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 7-9, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.3 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44.8 percent, with 0.2 percent for other candidates. The gap is 1.5 points. That is a close race, not a lead.

Our forecast did not change....

A CNN/SSRS survey of 843 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 31 to September 6, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 47 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44 percent. That is a three-point gap on a sample of that size, which is close.

Our forecast is unchanged. The model gives El-Sayed a 69...

A Glengariff Group survey of 600 likely voters in Michigan, sponsored by the Detroit News and WDIV-TV and fielded August 31 to September 3, put Republican Mike Rogers at 45.8 percent and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 44.4 percent. The gap is 1.4 points. On the numbers in the poll, the race is...

Two new Michigan Senate polls from Abacus Data, both fielded August 26-28, show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. Among 332 likely voters, El-Sayed took 47 percent to Rogers's 42. Among 500 registered voters, the split was 41-35. Neither poll reports a margin of error, and...

Two new surveys of the Michigan Senate race put Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers by mid-single digits. The Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov poll of 779 likely voters, fielded August 10-20, had El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 45. The same...

The most recent survey of the open Michigan Senate race, an EPIC-MRA poll of 600 likely voters fielded August 22-28, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 47 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 43 percent. A four-point gap on a sample that size is small enough to be consistent with a tied race, so the...

Our model now gives Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, a 69 in 100 chance of winning Michigan's open Senate seat, against 31 percent for the Republican, Mike Rogers. A week ago, in our August 24 run, the same estimate was 57 percent. That is a shift of 11.5 points of Democratic win probability over...

Two new EPIC-MRA surveys of the Michigan Senate race, each of 600 likely voters and each fielded August 22-28, 2026, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 50 percent to Republican Mike Rogers's 45 in one, and at 47 to 43 in the other. Both point the same way, and neither is far from the other.

Our...

A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research survey of 877 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 9-11, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 47 percent. A one-point separation in a sample that size is not a lead. The race is close.

Our forecast did not move. The model...

Our model now gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance of winning Michigan's open Senate seat, against 42% for Republican Mike Rogers. Three days ago, in our run of August 16 at 10:15 PM ET, the same estimate was 43%. That is a shift of 15.7 points of Democratic win probability over three...

A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 11-17, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39 percent.

That is the only new number in the race, and it moved our forecast. Our model now gives El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance...

Two new surveys of the Michigan Senate race, both from TIPP Insights and both fielded August 6-10, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. Among 1,528 registered voters, El-Sayed took 43 percent to Rogers' 39 percent. Among 1,215 likely voters, the split was 45...