Maine Senate
- Troy Jackson (Dem)
- Susan Collins (Rep · incumbent)
Democrats are favored, winning in 78 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 78%
Estimated margin
D+5.3
5th–95th interval
R+5.8 to D+16.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+2.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026 | 1,000 rv | Troy Jackson 48.0% Susan Collins 46.0% | D+2.0 | D+1.4 D+0.6 lean removed | Source |
| Hart Research | Jul 27–Aug 1, 2026 | 802 lv | Troy Jackson 49.0% Susan Collins 45.0% | D+4.0 | D+2.8 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 15–Jul 20, 2026 | 1,178 lv | Troy Jackson 49.0% Susan Collins 46.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Z to A Research | Jul 7–Jul 8, 2026 | 988 lv | Susan Collins 48.0% Troy Jackson 47.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 7, 2026 | 785 lv | Troy Jackson 49.0% Susan Collins 44.0% | D+5.0 | D+5.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jul 4–Jul 6, 2026 | 405 lv | Troy Jackson 48.0% Susan Collins 43.0% | D+5.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.