Maine Senate

Two new polls of the Maine Senate race find Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, and Troy Jackson, the Democrat, effectively even. After adding them, our model gives Jackson a 60 in 100 chance of winning, down from 63% in our previous run earlier today.

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,091...

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 27 to October 1, finds Democrat Troy Jackson at 52 percent and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 48 percent. A four-point gap in a sample that small is within ordinary sampling error. The poll describes a close race, not a clear...

A new Maine Senate poll shows a close race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson. The survey of 982 likely voters, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP and fielded September 20-22, found Jackson at 50% and Collins at 47%. That three-point gap is small...

A new co/efficient survey of 1,240 likely voters in Maine, fielded September 28-30, puts Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 48 percent and Democrat Troy Jackson at 46 percent. A two-point gap in a single poll is a close race, not a lead.

Our model now gives Jackson a 60 in 100 chance of winning...

Our model's estimate of the Maine Senate race has moved toward the Republican, Sen. Susan Collins. In the run of September 23 at 6:02 PM ET, it gave Democrat Troy Jackson a 75% chance of winning. As of September 28, our model gives Jackson a 62 in 100 chance. That is a change of 13.6 points of...

A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Maine, fielded September 22-23, finds a close Senate race. It puts Democrat Troy Jackson at 46.4 percent and Republican Sen. Susan Collins, the incumbent, at 45.6 percent. A gap that small is not a lead.

The poll confirmed what our model...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 1,301 likely voters, fielded September 17-21, put Democrat Troy Jackson at 51 percent and Republican incumbent Susan Collins at 47 percent. The poll's margin of error is not included in what we have, so the four-point gap is best read as a close race with...

A University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov survey of 650 likely voters, fielded August 28 to September 14, puts Democrat Troy Jackson at 48 percent and Republican Susan Collins at 43 percent.

Our model now gives Jackson a 56 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 619 likely voters in Maine, sponsored by the Portland Press Herald and fielded September 15-22, put Republican Susan Collins at 48.7 percent and Democrat Troy Jackson at 45.9 percent. The gap is under three points on a sample that size, which makes this...

Our model now gives Troy Jackson, the Democrat, a 75 in 100 chance of winning the Maine Senate race against Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent. A week ago, in our run of September 16 at 6:02 PM ET, it gave him 58 percent. That is a move of 17 points toward the Democrat over seven days.

The...

A Quantus Insights survey of 621 likely voters in Maine, fielded September 14-15, puts Susan Collins at 47.6 percent and Troy Jackson at 47.4 percent. That gap is two-tenths of a point. On its own, the poll says the race is close and nothing more precise than that.

Our model now gives Jackson a...

Our model now gives Democrat Troy Jackson a 61 in 100 chance of winning the Maine Senate race against Republican incumbent Susan Collins. A week ago, in our run of September 3, it gave him 87 percent. That is a move of 25.5 points of win probability toward Collins over seven days, the largest...

Two new YouGov surveys of Maine, both fielded September 2-8, show a close contest between Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson. Among 1,335 likely voters, Jackson takes 48 percent to Collins's 44 percent. Among 1,378 registered voters from the same field period, Jackson leads 46...

A CNN/SSRS survey of 880 likely voters in Maine, fielded August 31 to September 6, put Democrat Troy Jackson at 48 percent and Republican Susan Collins at 45 percent. The poll does not carry a margin of error in our payload, and a three-point gap on that sample is close enough that it is better...

Abacus Data released two readings of the Maine Senate race from the same August 26-28 field period, and they do not agree. Among 327 likely voters, Democrat Troy Jackson took 50 percent to Republican Susan Collins's 42 percent. Among 499 registered voters, the two were level at 40 percent...

Our model now gives Troy Jackson, the Democrat, a 90 in 100 chance of winning the Maine Senate race against Republican incumbent Susan Collins. A week earlier, in our August 21 run, the figure was 82 percent. That is a move of 8.1 points of Democratic win probability over seven days.

The mean...

Our model now gives Troy Jackson, the Democrat, an 83 in 100 chance of winning the Maine Senate race against Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent. That is up 8.2 points from the 75% our previous run gave him on August 16 at 10:15 p.m. ET, a span of four days.

The expected margin moved with...