Skip to content
535

South Carolina Senate

  • Annie Andrews (Dem)

Favors Rep

Republicans85%

Republicans are favored, winning 84,935 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans78%

Republicans are favored, winning 77,544 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+5.7

5th–95th interval

R+14.7 to D+3.3

Estimated margin

R+4.2

5th–95th interval

R+13.2 to D+4.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.2 current average: R+0.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham (R) · 1 poll
InsiderAdvantage Sep 28–Sep 29, 2026 1,200 lv Rep 46.0% Annie Andrews 45.0% Other 3.0% R+1.0 R+0.1 R+0.9 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham (R) · 7 polls
Trafalgar Group rep sponsor Sep 23–Sep 25, 2026 1,087 lv Rep 43.4% Annie Andrews 42.3% R+1.1 — Source
InsiderAdvantage Sep 8–Sep 9, 2026 1,200 lv Rep 45.1% Annie Andrews 43.2% R+1.9 R+1.0 R+0.9 lean removed Source
Abacus Data Aug 26–Aug 28, 2026 500 rv Annie Andrews 34.0% Rep 34.0% Even R+0.8 D+0.8 lean removed Source
Abacus Data Aug 26–Aug 28, 2026 306 lv Rep 51.0% Annie Andrews 38.0% R+13.0 R+13.8 D+0.8 lean removed Source
Impact Research dem sponsor Jun 17–Jun 22, 2026 700 lv Rep 48.0% Annie Andrews 45.0% R+3.0 — Source
Impact Research dem sponsor Feb 25–Mar 1, 2026 700 lv Rep 47.0% Annie Andrews 42.0% R+5.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Nov 21–Nov 22, 2025 704 rv Rep 42.0% Annie Andrews 36.0% R+6.0 R+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham (R) vs Kasie Whitener (LIB) · 1 poll
Impact Research dem sponsor Aug 18–Aug 24, 2026 700 lv Rep 41.0% Annie Andrews 41.0% Other 5.0% Even — Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Mark Lynch (R) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 577 rv Annie Andrews 41.0% Rep 38.0% D+3.0 D+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Nancy Mace (R) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 577 rv Annie Andrews 42.0% Rep 39.0% D+3.0 D+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Mark Sanford (R) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 577 rv Annie Andrews 41.0% Rep 40.0% D+1.0 D+2.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Russell Fry (R) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 577 rv Annie Andrews 42.0% Rep 39.0% D+3.0 D+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Ralph W. Norman (R) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 577 rv Rep 43.0% Annie Andrews 42.0% R+1.0 D+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Pamela Evette (R) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 577 rv Annie Andrews 42.0% Rep 41.0% D+1.0 D+2.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs Trey Gowdy (R) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 577 rv Rep 44.0% Annie Andrews 41.0% R+3.0 R+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Annie Andrews (D) vs John Warren (R) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 16–Jul 17, 2026 577 rv Annie Andrews 42.0% Rep 36.0% D+6.0 D+7.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction South Carolina Senate Oct 2, 2026

Close InsiderAdvantage poll moves South Carolina Senate to 17% for Andrews

Our model's margin for Republican Darline Graham narrows from R+7.9 to R+5.3 after a survey showing a one-point race.

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, found Republican incumbent Darline Graham at 46% and Democrat Annie Andrews at 45%, with 3% choosing another option. A one-point gap in a single poll is a close race, not a lead for either candidate.

The poll changed our...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction South Carolina Senate Sep 26, 2026

Close Trafalgar poll in South Carolina leaves our Senate forecast unchanged

A one-point Republican edge among likely voters did not shift our model, which still puts the average margin at R+7.2 for incumbent Darline Graham.

A new Trafalgar Group survey of 1,087 likely voters in South Carolina, fielded September 23-25, shows a close Senate race. It has Democrat Annie Andrews at 42.3 percent and the Republican at 43.4 percent, a gap of about one point.

The poll did not move our forecast. Our model gives Andrews a 10...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Movement note South Carolina Senate Sep 10, 2026

South Carolina Senate moves to 19 in 100 for the Democrat after a near-tied poll

Our model's Democratic win probability rose 11.1 points in a week, and its mean margin narrowed to R+5.3.

Our forecast of the South Carolina Senate race has moved toward the Democrat, Annie Andrews, over the past week. On September 3 at 6:32 PM ET our model gave her an 8 percent chance of winning. As of September 10 at 6:02 PM ET it gives her 19 in 100, a gain of 11.1 points across seven days. The...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note South Carolina Senate Aug 31, 2026

South Carolina Senate probability halves as our model's range narrows

Our estimate of Annie Andrews's chance fell from 18% to 9% in a week, even as the projected margin tightened to R+8.4.

Our model now gives Democrat Annie Andrews a 9 in 100 chance in the South Carolina Senate race, down from 18% in our run of August 24. That is a drop of 8.2 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, all of it toward Republican incumbent Darline Graham, who is now at 91%.

The...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction South Carolina Senate Aug 30, 2026

Abacus poll puts South Carolina Republican up 13; our model still reads R+11

The first non-tied survey in this run barely moved the dial: our estimate of a Democratic win in South Carolina ticked from 16% to 17%.

An Abacus Data survey of 2,500 likely voters, fielded August 29, has the Republican line at 55% and Democrat Annie Andrews at 42% in the South Carolina Senate race. That is a 13-point Republican advantage, and it is the widest of the recent numbers this site has covered.

Our forecast did not...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction South Carolina Senate Aug 28, 2026

A second South Carolina poll ties the race; our model still has it R+11

Impact Research finds Annie Andrews level with the Republican at 41, and our forecast nudges a point toward Republican Darline Graham.

An Impact Research survey of 700 likely voters in South Carolina, fielded August 18-24, put Democrat Annie Andrews at 41 percent and the Republican at 41 percent, with 5 percent for other candidates. No margin of error is given in the poll as we have it.

Our forecast did not follow the poll. Our...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction South Carolina Senate Aug 26, 2026

Tied poll in South Carolina leaves our Senate forecast where it was

Impact Research finds the race even at 41-41, but our model still gives Democrat Annie Andrews a 17 percent chance against Republican incumbent Darline Graham.

A new poll of the South Carolina Senate race shows it even. Impact Research, surveying 800 likely voters between August 18 and 24, put Democrat Annie Andrews at 41 percent and the Republican at 41 percent. It is the only new poll in this race in our payload.

Our forecast did not move. The model...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5