Ohio Senate

Our model now gives Democrat Sherrod Brown a 71 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election against Republican Sen. Jon Husted. In our September 29 run, at 6:02 AM ET, that figure was 80%. The change is 8.3 points of Democratic win probability toward the Republican over four days....

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 616 likely voters in Ohio, fielded September 22 to October 1, found Democrat Sherrod Brown at 48.8% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 46.1% in the special Senate election. That is a close race, not a clear lead for either candidate.

The poll confirmed...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, has Democrat Sherrod Brown at 44% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 43% in the Ohio Senate special election. Another 4% chose another candidate and 2% an independent. A one-point gap is not a lead in a poll of this kind....

A Suffolk University survey for USA Today of 500 likely voters, fielded September 23-27, puts Democrat Sherrod Brown at 46.6 percent and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 44.0 percent in Ohio's special Senate election. That gap is small for a sample of that size, and the race in this poll is best...

A new Big Data Poll survey for the Public Polling Project, fielded September 26-27, finds the Ohio Senate special election close. Among 680 likely voters, Democrat Sherrod Brown had 46.3% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted had 42.6%. Among 735 registered voters in the same survey, Brown had 45.2% and...

Our model now gives Democrat Sherrod Brown an 80 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election against Republican incumbent Jon Husted. In our run of September 23 at 10:02 AM ET, that figure was 61%. Our model puts the change at 18.5 points of Democratic win probability over six...

A Marist University survey of 1,298 registered voters in Ohio, fielded September 24-27, has Democrat Sherrod Brown at 51% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 43% in the special Senate election. That eight-point gap is the only new poll in this update.

Our model now gives Brown an 80 in 100 chance...

Two new Quantus Insights surveys of Ohio, each of 695 likely voters fielded September 21-23, show a close race. The head-to-head version has Sherrod Brown at 47.6 percent and Jon Husted at 47.2 percent. The version that offers other options has Brown at 47.3 percent and Husted at 46.8 percent,...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown a 61 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election against Republican incumbent Jon Husted. A week ago, in our run of September 16 at 10:02 AM ET, it gave him 74%. That is a move of 12.5 points of Democratic win probability toward Husted over seven...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,085 likely voters in Ohio, fielded September 14-16, put Democrat Sherrod Brown at 45.4 percent and Republican Jon Husted, the incumbent, at 41.5 percent in the state's special Senate election.

Our model gives Brown a 72 in 100 chance of winning the seat, and Husted...

A YouGov poll sponsored by Bowling Green State University, fielded September 1-10 among 1,000 likely voters, put Sherrod Brown at 48 percent and Republican incumbent Jon Husted at 45 percent in Ohio's Senate special election. Three percent picked an independent candidate and 2 percent named...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, a 61 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election against Republican Sen. Jon Husted. That is up 19.9 points from the 42% our September 7 run gave him, a move of seven days.

One poll of the race arrived in between. An InsiderAdvantage...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Ohio, fielded September 8-9, put Sherrod Brown at 47.3 percent and Republican incumbent Jon Husted at 41.9 percent, a margin of 5.4 points for the Democrat.

Our model now gives Brown a 70 in 100 chance of winning the special election, with a...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown a 41 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election, against 59 percent for Republican Jon Husted, the incumbent. That is a shift of 14.5 points of Democratic win probability since our run on August 31, when Brown stood at 56 percent and Husted at 44...

An Abacus Data survey of 500 registered voters, fielded August 26-28, put Sherrod Brown at 40 percent and Jon Husted at 33 percent, with more than a quarter of respondents landing on neither name. It is the most recent poll of the Ohio Senate special election in our database.

Our model now gives...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, a 45 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election, and Republican Jon Husted, the incumbent, a 55 percent chance. A week ago, in our run dated August 21, those figures were reversed: Brown 59 percent, Husted 41 percent. That is a move...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown a 58 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election, and Jon Husted, the Republican incumbent, a 42 percent chance. On our previous run, at 10:15 p.m. ET on August 16, the same race stood at 67 percent for Brown and 33 percent for Husted. That is a...