Senate
35 of the Senate's 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot. The other 65 are holdovers who don't face voters this year, and the forecast counts them toward control.
Final forecast ·
Senate results
Winners recorded for seats on the ballot
1 outstanding of 35 races
Senate final forecast
Democrats control in 78,690 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Democrats control in 78,259 of 100,000 simulated elections.
mean 52.5 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
mean 52.4 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
Forecast over time
Dem Rep 5th–95th percentile of seats Data correction
Darker is likelier. The palest shades are tossups: the leading side wins 65% of simulations or fewer.
Outstanding races · Show all races
1 of 1 races
| Race ▼ | Result | Final forecast | Final chance | Margin | Lean | Polls | Last poll | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate |
Uncalled
|
TossupTossup | Final chanceD 64%D 64% | D+1.7 D+1.6 | |
R+13.1 | 43 | Nov 1, 2026 |