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535

Rhode Island Senate

  • Jack Reed (Dem · incumbent)
  • Raymond McKay (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,999 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,999 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+24.5

5th–95th interval

D+15.4 to D+33.6

Estimated margin

D+24.5

5th–95th interval

D+15.4 to D+33.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+20.0 current average: D+20.0

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Jack Reed (D) vs Michael Bahry (I) vs Raymond McKay (R) · 2 polls
University of New Hampshire Sep 17–Sep 21, 2026 595 lv Jack Reed 53.0% Raymond McKay 33.0% Ind 5.0% D+20.0 — Source
University of New Hampshire Aug 20–Aug 24, 2026 722 lv Jack Reed 51.0% Raymond McKay 31.0% Ind 4.0% D+20.0 — Source
Jack Reed (D) vs Raymond McKay (R) · 2 polls
University of New Hampshire Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 627 lv Jack Reed 52.0% Raymond McKay 35.0% D+17.0 — Source
University of New Hampshire Apr 16–Apr 20, 2026 556 lv Jack Reed 52.0% Raymond McKay 34.0% D+18.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Rhode Island Senate Sep 24, 2026

Reed leads by 20 in new UNH poll, and our Rhode Island number holds

The University of New Hampshire finds Reed at 53 and McKay at 33; our model still gives the Democrat essentially no chance of losing.

A University of New Hampshire survey of 595 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded September 17-21, puts Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 53 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 33 percent, with 5 percent for an independent.

Our forecast is unchanged in substance. The model gives Reed a 100...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Rhode Island Senate Aug 31, 2026

Two UNH polls, four months apart, leave the Rhode Island Senate race where it was

Reed leads by 20 in the newer survey and by 18 in the spring one; our model's projected margin moved by a tenth of a point.

A University of New Hampshire survey of 722 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded August 20-24, put Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 51 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 31 percent, with 4 percent for an independent. An earlier University of New Hampshire poll of 556 likely voters,...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Rhode Island Senate Aug 28, 2026

New Rhode Island poll shows Reed up 20, and our forecast barely moves

A University of New Hampshire survey has Jack Reed at 51 percent to Raymond McKay's 31, close to the margin our model already expected.

A University of New Hampshire survey of 750 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded August 20-24, puts Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 51 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 31 percent. That is a 20-point margin.

Our model gives Reed a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the seat, and...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5