Virginia Senate

Mark Warner (Dem · incumbent)
Bert Mizusawa (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats95%

Democrats are favored, winning 94,952 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats95%

Democrats are favored, winning 94,952 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+16.1

5th–95th interval

Even to D+32.1

Estimated margin

D+16.1

5th–95th interval

Even to D+32.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Responsive Management	Dec 18, 2024–Jan 15, 2025	806 a	Mark Warner 45.0% Rep 38.0%	D+7.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Movement note Virginia Senate Aug 31, 2026

Model trims Warner's win probability in Virginia as its range widens

Our estimate for the Democratic incumbent fell from 99% to 90% in a week, with no new Virginia polling in the payload to explain it.

Our model now gives Mark Warner, the Democratic incumbent, a 90 in 100 chance of winning the Virginia Senate race, and Republican Bert Mizusawa a 10% chance. A week ago, in our run of August 24, the same numbers were 99% and 1%. That is a move of 8.8 points of Democratic win probability toward...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5