Oregon Senate
- Jeff Merkley (Dem · incumbent)
- David Brock Smith (Rep)
Favors Dem
Democrats99%
Democrats are favored, winning 99,123 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats99%
Democrats are favored, winning 99,123 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+23.4
5th–95th interval
D+7.2 to D+39.5
Estimated margin
D+23.4
5th–95th interval
D+7.2 to D+39.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.