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535

Oklahoma Senate

  • Kevin Hern (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,741 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,741 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+27.0

5th–95th interval

R+43.1 to R+11.0

Estimated margin

R+27.0

5th–95th interval

R+43.1 to R+11.0

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the state's partisan lean and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Kevin Hern (R) vs N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) vs Ron Meinhardt (I) vs Sevier White (LIB) · 1 poll
Cole Hargrave Aug 3–Aug 6, 2026 500 rv Kevin Hern 49.0% Dem 25.0% Other 3.0% Ind 1.0% R+24.0 — Source
Jim Priest (D) vs Kevin Hern (R) vs Ron Meinhardt (I) vs Sevier White (LIB) · 1 poll
Cole Hargrave Aug 3–Aug 6, 2026 500 rv Kevin Hern 48.0% Dem 27.0% Ind 5.0% Other 2.0% R+21.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Oklahoma Senate Aug 31, 2026

Two Cole Hargrave polls put Hern above 20 points in Oklahoma

Our model still gives the Democrat a 1 in 100 chance in the open Oklahoma Senate seat, with a mean margin of R+28.7.

Two new surveys of the Oklahoma Senate race from Cole Hargrave, each of 500 registered voters fielded August 3-6, put Republican Kevin Hern well clear of the unnamed Democrat. One has Hern at 48 percent to 27 percent for the Democrat, with 5 percent for an independent and 2 percent for other...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Oklahoma Senate Aug 21, 2026

Oklahoma Senate polls show Hern up more than 20, and our forecast barely moves

Two CHS & Associates surveys put the Republican above 20 points, and our model still gives the Democrat a 1 in 100 chance.

Two new surveys of the open Oklahoma Senate race point the same direction. CHS & Associates, polling 500 registered voters August 3-6, had Republican Kevin Hern at 48 percent and the Democrat at 27 percent. A second CHS & Associates survey of 500 registered voters over the same August 3-6 window...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5