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535

Kentucky Senate

  • Charles Booker (Dem)
  • Andy Barr (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 98,602 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,994 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+21.6

5th–95th interval

R+37.7 to R+5.3

Estimated margin

R+21.3

5th–95th interval

R+30.4 to R+12.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+9.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Andy Barr (R) vs Charles Booker (D) · 2 polls
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor Aug 24–Aug 27, 2026 600 lv Andy Barr 49.0% Charles Booker 40.0% R+9.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Dec 18–Dec 19, 2025 650 rv Andy Barr 49.0% Charles Booker 38.0% R+11.0 R+9.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Charles Booker (D) vs Daniel Cameron (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Dec 18–Dec 19, 2025 650 rv Rep 46.0% Charles Booker 39.0% R+7.0 R+5.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Charles Booker (D) vs Nate Morris (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Dec 18–Dec 19, 2025 650 rv Rep 41.0% Charles Booker 40.0% R+1.0 D+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Kentucky Senate Sep 9, 2026

New Kentucky poll puts Barr up nine, well inside our forecast's range

Global Strategy Group finds Barr 49, Booker 40; our model still gives Charles Booker a 2 in 100 chance and a mean margin of R+23.6.

A Global Strategy Group survey of 600 likely voters in Kentucky, fielded August 24-27, put Republican Andy Barr at 49 percent and Democrat Charles Booker at 40 percent. That is the only new poll in this race in our data.

Our forecast did not move. It gives Booker a 2 in 100 chance of winning the...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Kentucky Senate Aug 31, 2026

Kentucky Senate polling shows Barr ahead of Booker; our forecast is unmoved

Three matchups from a December Public Policy Polling survey range from a one-point margin to R+11, and our model still gives Charles Booker a 2 percent chance.

Three new entries in our Kentucky Senate database all come from the same Public Policy Polling survey of 650 registered voters, fielded December 18-19, 2025. In the named matchup, Republican Andy Barr led Democrat Charles Booker 49 percent to 38 percent. Tested against an unnamed Republican,...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5