New Mexico Senate

Ben Ray Luján (Dem · incumbent)
Larry Marker (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,864 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,864 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+16.5

5th–95th interval

D+7.5 to D+25.6

Estimated margin

D+16.5

5th–95th interval

D+7.5 to D+25.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+15.0 current average: D+15.0

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Research & Polling Inc.	Aug 21–Aug 28, 2026	516 lv	Ben Ray Luján 53.0% Larry Marker 38.0%	D+15.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Movement note New Mexico Senate Sep 1, 2026

Model narrows New Mexico Senate range, lifting Lujan to 99 in 100

Our estimate of the Democrat's win chance rose nine points in a week while the projected margin barely moved; one new state poll arrived in between.

Our model now gives Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Lujan a 99 in 100 chance of winning the New Mexico Senate race. In the previous run, on August 25 at 10:03 a.m. ET, it gave him 90 percent. That is a move of nine points toward the Democrat over seven days.

The projected margin did not move with...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5