Mississippi Senate

Scott Colom (Dem)
Cindy Hyde-Smith (Rep · incumbent)
Ty Pinkins (Ind)

Favors Rep

Republicans93%

Republicans are favored, winning 93,238 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,593 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+14.6

5th–95th interval

R+30.7 to D+1.5

Estimated margin

R+14.4

5th–95th interval

R+23.6 to R+5.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+6.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) vs Scott Colom (D) vs Ty Pinkins (I) · 2 polls
Data for Progress dem sponsor	Aug 5–Aug 15, 2026	1,018 lv	Cindy Hyde-Smith 44.0% Scott Colom 38.0% Ty Pinkins 7.0%	R+6.0	—	Source
Impact Research dem sponsor	Apr 8–Apr 12, 2026	500 lv	Cindy Hyde-Smith 42.0% Scott Colom 39.0% Ty Pinkins 6.0%	R+3.0	—	Source
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) vs Scott Colom (D) · 1 poll
Data for Progress dem sponsor	Aug 5–Aug 15, 2026	1,018 lv	Cindy Hyde-Smith 47.0% Scott Colom 41.0%	R+6.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction Mississippi Senate Aug 31, 2026

An April poll of Mississippi puts Hyde-Smith three ahead, and our odds widen

Our model now gives Scott Colom an 8 percent chance, up from 1 percent, even as the projected margin moved slightly toward the Republican.

An Impact Research survey for the SPLC Action Fund, fielded April 8-12 among 500 likely voters, found Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith at 42 percent, Democrat Scott Colom at 39 percent and independent Ty Pinkins at 6 percent. A three-point gap on a sample that size is a close result, not a measured...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction Mississippi Senate Aug 28, 2026

Data for Progress finds Hyde-Smith up six in Mississippi, and our odds narrow

The poll trims our projected Republican margin but tightens the range around it, cutting Scott Colom's estimated chance to 2 percent from 8.

Two new Data for Progress surveys of the Mississippi Senate race, both of 1,018 likely voters fielded August 5-15, put Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith six points ahead of Democrat Scott Colom. The three-way version, which included independent Ty Pinkins, had Hyde-Smith at 44 percent, Colom at 38...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5