Senate
35 of the Senate's 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot. The other 65 are holdovers who don't face voters this year, and the forecast counts them toward control.
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Senate
Democrats control in 54,316 of 100,000 simulated elections.
51 = majority
54% Dem control 45% Rep control mean 50.7 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
Democrats control in 56,764 of 100,000 simulated elections.
51 = majority
57% Dem control 43% Rep control mean 50.8 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
Dem
Rep
No forecast yet
No Senate race this year
Darker is likelier. The palest shades are tossups: the leading side wins 65% of simulations or fewer.
35 of 35 races
| Race ▼ | Rating | Win prob. | Margin | Trend | Lean | Polls | Last poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+38.0 R+38.0 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | |
| West Virginia Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+35.3 R+35.3 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | |
| Virginia Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 95%D 95% | D+16.1 D+16.1 | D+6.5 | 1 | Jan 15, 2025 | |
| Texas Senate | TossupTossup | D 65%D 63% | D+2.1 D+1.8 | R+11.1 | 95 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Tennessee Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 99%R 99% | R+21.3 R+21.3 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | |
| South Dakota Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 99%R 100% | R+22.5 R+19.8 | R+29.2 | 12 | Sep 27, 2026 | |
| South Carolina Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 85%R 78% | R+5.7 R+4.2 | R+16.3 | 17 | Sep 29, 2026 | |
| Rhode Island Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 100%D 100% | D+24.5 D+24.5 | D+15.8 | 4 | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Oregon Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 99%D 99% | D+23.4 D+23.4 | D+13.7 | 0 | — | |
| Oklahoma Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+27.0 R+27.0 | R+35.2 | 2 | Aug 6, 2026 | |
| Ohio Senate special | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 71%D 72% | D+3.1 D+3.2 | R+11.1 | 32 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| New Mexico Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 100%D 100% | D+16.5 D+16.5 | D+6.9 | 1 | Aug 28, 2026 | |
| New Jersey Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 97%D 97% | D+19.0 D+19.0 | D+9.4 | 0 | — | |
| New Hampshire Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 88%D 88% | D+11.7 D+11.7 | D+3.6 | 44 | Sep 27, 2026 | |
| Nebraska Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 93%R 93% | R+14.6 R+14.6 | R+21.3 | 13 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| North Carolina Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 95%D 95% | D+9.1 D+9.0 | R+3.8 | 53 | Sep 29, 2026 | |
| Montana Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 99%R 100% | R+14.0 R+15.7 | R+19.7 | 28 | Sep 24, 2026 | |
| Mississippi Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 93%R 100% | R+14.6 R+14.4 | R+21.2 | 3 | Aug 15, 2026 | |
| Minnesota Senate | TossupTossup | D 63%D 64% | D+1.8 D+1.9 | D+4.2 | 16 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Michigan Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 77%D 75% | D+4.0 D+3.7 | R+0.8 | 92 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Maine Senate | TossupTossup | D 60%D 60% | D+1.4 D+1.4 | D+6.5 | 65 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Massachusetts Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 100%D 100% | D+37.5 D+37.5 | D+27.8 | 20 | Sep 22, 2026 | |
| Louisiana Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 92%R 99% | R+13.7 R+13.0 | R+21.8 | 2 | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Kentucky Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 99%R 100% | R+21.6 R+21.3 | R+29.7 | 4 | Aug 27, 2026 | |
| Kansas Senate | Favors RepTossup | R 68%D 56% | R+2.5 D+0.8 | R+16.9 | 16 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Illinois Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 98%D 98% | D+20.6 D+20.6 | D+12.5 | 0 | — | |
| Idaho Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+28.5 R+28.5 | R+35.1 | 11 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Iowa Senate | TossupTossup | D 58%D 57% | D+1.1 D+1.0 | R+12.2 | 36 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Georgia Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 94%D 94% | D+8.5 D+8.5 | R+2.5 | 49 | Sep 23, 2026 | |
| Florida Senate special | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 80%R 80% | R+4.6 R+4.6 | R+9.7 | 26 | Sep 27, 2026 | |
| Delaware Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 99%D 99% | D+25.0 D+25.0 | D+15.3 | 0 | — | |
| Colorado Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 98%D 98% | D+20.4 D+20.4 | D+10.8 | 0 | — | |
| Arkansas Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+22.8 R+22.7 | R+30.6 | 4 | Aug 18, 2026 | |
| Alabama Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+21.3 R+20.9 | R+29.5 | 2 | Sep 25, 2026 | |
| Alaska Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 74%R 74% | R+6.4 R+6.4 | R+13.1 | 30 | Oct 1, 2026 |