Senate
35 of the Senate's 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot. The other 65 are holdovers who don't face voters this year, and the forecast counts them toward control.
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Senate
Republicans favored to control — 51 in 100 simulations.
51 = majority
49% Dem control 51% Rep control mean 50.2 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
35 of 35 races
| Race ▼ | Rating | Win prob. | Margin | Trend | Lean | Polls | Last poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+39.2 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | |
| West Virginia Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+36.6 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | |
| Virginia Senate | Favors Dem | D 99% | D+14.8 | D+6.5 | 2 | Jun 16, 2026 | |
| Texas Senate | Tossup | D 59% | D+1.6 | R+11.1 | 25 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Tennessee Senate | Favors Rep | R 97% | R+22.8 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | |
| South Dakota Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+23.8 | R+29.2 | 9 | Jul 9, 2026 | |
| South Carolina Senate | Favors Rep | R 82% | R+10.9 | R+16.3 | 10 | Jul 17, 2026 | |
| Rhode Island Senate | Favors Dem | D 100% | D+23.7 | D+15.8 | 2 | Jun 23, 2026 | |
| Oregon Senate | Favors Dem | D 97% | D+21.8 | D+13.7 | 0 | — | |
| Oklahoma Senate | Favors Rep | R 99% | R+28.4 | R+35.2 | 0 | — | |
| Ohio Senate special | Tossup | D 62% | D+2.1 | R+11.1 | 18 | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| New Mexico Senate | Favors Dem | D 90% | D+15.1 | D+6.9 | 0 | — | |
| New Jersey Senate | Favors Dem | D 93% | D+17.7 | D+9.4 | 0 | — | |
| New Hampshire Senate | Favors Dem | D 94% | D+10.4 | D+3.6 | 13 | Jun 25, 2026 | |
| Nebraska Senate | Favors Rep | R 99% | R+15.9 | R+21.3 | 7 | May 11, 2026 | |
| North Carolina Senate | Favors Dem | D 90% | D+8.7 | R+3.8 | 30 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Montana Senate | Favors Rep | R 98% | R+13.4 | R+19.7 | 24 | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| Mississippi Senate | Favors Rep | R 91% | R+15.9 | R+21.2 | 3 | Apr 12, 2026 | |
| Minnesota Senate | Favors Dem | D 91% | D+9.1 | D+4.2 | 6 | Aug 17, 2026 | |
| Michigan Senate | Tossup | D 58% | D+1.3 | R+0.8 | 26 | Aug 17, 2026 | |
| Maine Senate | Favors Dem | D 79% | D+5.2 | D+6.5 | 6 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Massachusetts Senate | Favors Dem | D 100% | D+31.3 | D+27.8 | 8 | Aug 12, 2026 | |
| Louisiana Senate | Favors Rep | R 99% | R+14.3 | R+21.8 | 1 | Jul 22, 2026 | |
| Kentucky Senate | Favors Rep | R 97% | R+23.2 | R+29.7 | 1 | Dec 19, 2025 | |
| Kansas Senate | Favors Rep | R 92% | R+9.2 | R+16.9 | 4 | Aug 8, 2026 | |
| Illinois Senate | Favors Dem | D 95% | D+19.1 | D+12.5 | 0 | — | |
| Idaho Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+23.3 | R+35.1 | 10 | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Iowa Senate | Favors Rep | R 75% | R+4.6 | R+12.2 | 9 | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| Georgia Senate | Favors Dem | D 85% | D+7.0 | R+2.5 | 12 | Aug 17, 2026 | |
| Florida Senate special | Favors Rep | R 66% | R+4.8 | R+9.7 | 21 | Jul 17, 2026 | |
| Delaware Senate | Favors Dem | D 98% | D+23.6 | D+15.3 | 0 | — | |
| Colorado Senate | Favors Dem | D 94% | D+18.9 | D+10.8 | 0 | — | |
| Arkansas Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+19.9 | R+30.6 | 3 | Aug 18, 2026 | |
| Alabama Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+22.4 | R+29.5 | 1 | Jul 11, 2026 | |
| Alaska Senate | Favors Rep | R 68% | R+3.3 | R+13.1 | 18 | Aug 5, 2026 |