Senate
35 of the Senate's 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot. The other 65 are holdovers who don't face voters this year, and the forecast counts them toward control.
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Senate
Democrats control in 54,316 of 100,000 simulated elections.
51 = majority
54% Dem control 45% Rep control mean 50.7 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
Democrats control in 56,764 of 100,000 simulated elections.
51 = majority
57% Dem control 43% Rep control mean 50.8 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
Dem
Rep
No forecast yet
No Senate race this year
Darker is likelier. The palest shades are tossups: the leading side wins 65% of simulations or fewer.
35 of 35 races
| Race ▲ | Rating | Win prob. | Margin | Trend | Lean | Polls | Last poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 74%R 74% | R+6.4 R+6.4 | R+13.1 | 30 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Alabama Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+21.3 R+20.9 | R+29.5 | 2 | Sep 25, 2026 | |
| Arkansas Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+22.8 R+22.7 | R+30.6 | 4 | Aug 18, 2026 | |
| Colorado Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 98%D 98% | D+20.4 D+20.4 | D+10.8 | 0 | — | |
| Delaware Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 99%D 99% | D+25.0 D+25.0 | D+15.3 | 0 | — | |
| Florida Senate special | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 80%R 80% | R+4.6 R+4.6 | R+9.7 | 26 | Sep 27, 2026 | |
| Georgia Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 94%D 94% | D+8.5 D+8.5 | R+2.5 | 49 | Sep 23, 2026 | |
| Iowa Senate | TossupTossup | D 58%D 57% | D+1.1 D+1.0 | R+12.2 | 36 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Idaho Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+28.5 R+28.5 | R+35.1 | 11 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Illinois Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 98%D 98% | D+20.6 D+20.6 | D+12.5 | 0 | — | |
| Kansas Senate | Favors RepTossup | R 68%D 56% | R+2.5 D+0.8 | R+16.9 | 16 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Kentucky Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 99%R 100% | R+21.6 R+21.3 | R+29.7 | 4 | Aug 27, 2026 | |
| Louisiana Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 92%R 99% | R+13.7 R+13.0 | R+21.8 | 2 | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Massachusetts Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 100%D 100% | D+37.5 D+37.5 | D+27.8 | 20 | Sep 22, 2026 | |
| Maine Senate | TossupTossup | D 60%D 60% | D+1.4 D+1.4 | D+6.5 | 65 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Michigan Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 77%D 75% | D+4.0 D+3.7 | R+0.8 | 92 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Minnesota Senate | TossupTossup | D 63%D 64% | D+1.8 D+1.9 | D+4.2 | 16 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Mississippi Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 93%R 100% | R+14.6 R+14.4 | R+21.2 | 3 | Aug 15, 2026 | |
| Montana Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 99%R 100% | R+14.0 R+15.7 | R+19.7 | 28 | Sep 24, 2026 | |
| North Carolina Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 95%D 95% | D+9.1 D+9.0 | R+3.8 | 53 | Sep 29, 2026 | |
| Nebraska Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 93%R 93% | R+14.6 R+14.6 | R+21.3 | 13 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| New Hampshire Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 88%D 88% | D+11.7 D+11.7 | D+3.6 | 44 | Sep 27, 2026 | |
| New Jersey Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 97%D 97% | D+19.0 D+19.0 | D+9.4 | 0 | — | |
| New Mexico Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 100%D 100% | D+16.5 D+16.5 | D+6.9 | 1 | Aug 28, 2026 | |
| Ohio Senate special | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 71%D 72% | D+3.1 D+3.2 | R+11.1 | 32 | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Oklahoma Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+27.0 R+27.0 | R+35.2 | 2 | Aug 6, 2026 | |
| Oregon Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 99%D 99% | D+23.4 D+23.4 | D+13.7 | 0 | — | |
| Rhode Island Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 100%D 100% | D+24.5 D+24.5 | D+15.8 | 4 | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| South Carolina Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 85%R 78% | R+5.7 R+4.2 | R+16.3 | 17 | Sep 29, 2026 | |
| South Dakota Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 99%R 100% | R+22.5 R+19.8 | R+29.2 | 12 | Sep 27, 2026 | |
| Tennessee Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 99%R 99% | R+21.3 R+21.3 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | |
| Texas Senate | TossupTossup | D 65%D 63% | D+2.1 D+1.8 | R+11.1 | 95 | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Virginia Senate | Favors DemFavors Dem | D 95%D 95% | D+16.1 D+16.1 | D+6.5 | 1 | Jan 15, 2025 | |
| West Virginia Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+35.3 R+35.3 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | |
| Wyoming Senate | Favors RepFavors Rep | R 100%R 100% | R+38.0 R+38.0 | R+46.1 | 0 | — |