Democratic-sponsored polls in FL-13 leave our forecast where it was

Two new surveys of Florida's 13th District, both from Hart Research Associates and both sponsored by House Majority PAC, were fielded August 25-27 among likely voters. One, which included an unnamed independent option at 7 percent, put Democrat Leela Gray at 44 percent and Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna at 43 percent. The other, a two-way matchup, put Gray at 51 percent and Luna at 46 percent.

Our forecast did not move. The model gives Gray a 48 in 100 chance and Luna 52 percent, with a mean margin of R+0.5 and a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from R+16.6 to D+15.7. The run before these numbers were processed, at 8:32 AM ET, had the same win probabilities and a mean margin of R+0.4. In practical terms the new polling confirmed what the model already had: a district close enough that either candidate can plausibly win, with wide uncertainty around the median outcome.

Two caveats belong on the poll numbers. Both come from the same pollster in the same field period, so they are not independent readings of the district, and both were paid for by a group aligned with one side. The payload reports no sample sizes or margins of error, so the one-point gap in the first version is best read as a close race rather than a lead, and the five-point gap in the second should be weighed against its sponsorship.

Nationally, our average of 26 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.5. The model's mean House outcome is 240.1 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for control, and it gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of a majority. One note on that figure: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across state lines. Without that term, the House control number is marginally firmer than it should be.