Ossoff leads by 7 in new Georgia poll, and our forecast barely moves

An Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters in Georgia, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50 percent and Republican Mike Collins at 43 percent.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 83 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+6.5 and a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from R+4.8 to D+17.5. Before this run, our forecast had him at 82 percent, with a mean margin of D+6.2 and a range from R+4.8 to D+17.2. The new number confirmed what was already there rather than changing it.

That is the useful thing about a poll that lands close to the average: the seven-point margin in the Insider Advantage survey sits within a point of our mean estimate, so the model's central case moved a fraction and its tails did not move at all. Roughly one simulation in six still ends with Collins ahead.

Nationally, our generic ballot average stands at D+6.7 across 26 polls in the last 45 days. In the Senate, we give Democrats a 47 percent chance of winning control against 53 percent for Republicans, with a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats; Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Georgia is one of the seats that keeps that arithmetic live, and our estimate of it did not change today.

In the House, our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of winning at least the 218 seats needed for a majority, with a mean of 242.4 seats. One caveat is ours to own: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across regions, so that 93 percent is marginally firmer than a fuller accounting would leave it.